👀 13 MUST HAVE players in fantasy football

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Who is ESSENTIAL to draft at ADP? 🏆

• Why the overlooked can return value 💰

• How to get the most out of your draft ✅ 

• MORE news from NFL team camps 📰 

Joe Mixon (CIN), ADP 41.8, RB15:

Mixon’s ADP has crept up, but he’s still a big value.

The Bengals had no real choice but to restructure with Mixon after letting Samaje Perine go and waiting until round 5 to draft Chase Brown.

So Mixon will be the no. 1 in this great offense again.

Even though his efficiency waned a bit in ‘22, he was:

• 9th in EPA

• 7th in targets (74)

• 6th in RZ touches (46)

• 7th in fantasy PPG (16.1)

Playing alongside to his star teammates, I think the path leads to a better ranking than RB15.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 52, WR23:

The end of his season went better than you think.

From Weeks 14-18 he averaged 20.14 fantasy PPG, which would have been on par with Tyreek Hill for 2nd extrapolated out to the season.

Even with the rest of the games, Jeudy finished 9th in yards per target (9.7), and 16th in yards per route run (2.29).

The guy is a terrific route-runner with a capable QB coming off a down year, and new head coach with a historical penchant for good offense.

Pick him up and benefit.

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), ADP 32.2, WR17:

I haven’t talked about Hop since the Tennessee deal.

In his 9 games with Arizona last season, he proved he still had some star power left, commanding the no. 2 air yards share (43.5%), and finishing 9th in fantasy PPG (16.9).

And if you think his age will prevent him from getting open, he was 4th in route win rate (51.8%).

The situation is better than you think.

Ryan Tannehill was:

• 5th in yards per attempt (7.8)

• 9th in red zone accuracy rating

• 12th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 4th in under pressure accuracy rating

Hopkins will raise the value of Treylon Burks too, as opposing coverages will have to adjust.

It’s a winning pick.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ), ADP 127.1, QB15:

I was fading Rodgers earlier in the summer, but looking at his ADP I’ve come back around.

First of all, the J-E-T-S have a talented offense on paper, with guys like Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Allen Lazard, who knows Rodgers already.

Even though Rodgers had a bit of a down season last year, there was still some savvy work:

• 9th in air yards (4,346)

• 12th in true passer rating (90.5)

• 5th in RZ completion percentage (63%)

The fact that he just restructured his contract tells me that things are going smoothly in New Jersey so far. Promising.

He’s a first-ballot HOFer who I wouldn’t count out.

Even though Rodgers only threw for 3,695 yards a year ago, and Jets QBs barely combined to reach 4,000, I’m going with my gut.

A rejuvenated Rodgers will beat his PrizePicks prop of 3,999.5 passing yards.

Jerick McKinnon (KC), ADP 115.7, RB36:

Jerick led the league in reception TDs by a running back despite a pedestrian opportunity share, and showed off his talents when he was on the field:

• 9th in receptions (56)

• 4th in receiving yards (512)

• 8th in yards per route run (1.67)

• 1st in yards created per touch (5.56)

• 1st in fantasy points per opportunity (1.37)

Impressively, he was also 3rd in EPA.

The offense is going to remain potent as long as Patrick Mahomes is still running it, and even if McKinnon is behind Isiah Pachecho on the depth chart, he’s a proven veteran with talent and experience.

Drafting at this point feels right.

Darren Waller (NYG), ADP 76.8, TE7:

The Giants were 22nd in 3rd down conversion percentage in 2022, so they did something about it.

Waller is the perfect salve.

He’s one of the most athletic TEs of all time, bar none.

And in ‘22 (9 games):

• 1st in ADOT (13.6)

• 1st in deep targets (13)

• 2nd in yards per reception (13.9)

• 11th in yards per route run (1.69)

Daniel Jones has improved immensely under the tutelage of Brian Daboll, cutting down on turnovers, and becoming more accurate at all levels of the field.

Waller should be an immense part of this attack in ‘23, and will pay off big for fantasy managers.

Christian Kirk (JAX), 39.6, WR20:

It’s no secret that I’ve been high on the Jaguars’ offense.

While Calvin Ridley seems primed for a huge comeback catching balls from Trevor Lawrence, Kirk is has tremendous upside too.

Last year, he earned career highs in targets, catches, and yards while finishing as WR18 in fantasy PPG (14.2).

That included the 5th-most RZ targets and the 12th-most deep targets. Enough of those from Lawrence will undoubtedly lead to production.

With the offense on the rise, I like the outlook.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), ADP 26.1, RB11:

I keep going back to Gibbs because of the unique talent and circumstance combo. It looks like a good situation.

Here are some ‘22 highlights along with some of his best athletic measurements:

• 926 rush yards

• 444 receiving yards

• 4.36 40-time at combine (99th%)

• 53% breakaway rate (5th in draft class)

(per Pro Football Focus)

Departed Lions RBs D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams touched the football 421 times last season.

Those touches will go to both Gibbs and David Montgomery, who's been less efficient (His 3.9 true YPC ranked 50th).

He’s lined up all over the formations for Detroit in team workouts so far this summer.

That means Dan Campbell and his staff know what they have and are ready to find ways for their rookie to succeed.

DeVante Parker (NE), ADP 266.9, WR84:

Is this ADP for real?

I know the Patriots had a poor offense last year, but Bill O’Brien represents an immediate upgrade at coordinator.

And lots of people have forgotten that Mac Jones was pretty good as a rookie back in 2021.

Parker is highly athletic and has proved in the past he can get down the field and make plays.

In ‘22:

• 2nd in ADOT (15.6)

• 4th in yards per reception (17.4)

• 5th in fantasy points per target (2.19)

The Pats missed out on Hopkins, but just extended Parker for 3 more years, showing confidence in their guy.

With a bit more volume and efficient play from the QB, these could turn into something on an absolutely free draft pick.

Nico Collins (HOU), ADP 109.9, WR53:

At 6’4” and 215 pounds, Collins can outmuscle defenders for contested catches — and he showed it.

He was 4th in true catch rate (112.1%) and 2nd in contested catch rate (66.7%) in ‘22.

From Weeks 10-13, his best stretch, he earned 9 targets per game and had 2 finishes inside the top-25.

Now that Brandin Cooks is gone, he has a real shot to take over the no. 1 role. So far, I give him the edge over John Metchie, but we’ll see how camp goes.

Perhaps the most promising thing is the way he’s already built a rapport with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who will try to bring his accuracy, arm strength, and mechanics.

And while the Texans project to improve from 3-13-1 record, they’ll still trail. It bodes well for passing game usage.

In summary, I think Collins has a shot to DESTROY this ADP and provide valuable fantasy production for your team.

Cam Akers (LAR), ADP 62.8, RB21:

Akers got really hot at the end of the season, starting in Week 14 when he got his bell cow role back.

Had 3 top-10 weeks, including best of the slate in Week 16.

In his final 3 games:

• Routes went from 5 to 15 per game

• Carries went from 10.4 to 21 per game

Sean McVay has had some success with his RBs, and that’s translated well to fantasy football.

Darrell Henderson is no longer with the team, which will help Akers, although they did sign Sony Michel.

Despite the lack of passing game work (just 18 targets in 2022), Akers is a value at this point in the draft and has the upside to produce adequately.

Deshaun Watson (CLE), ADP 86, QB9:

Putting moral arguments aside, Watson’s football upside is what we’re chasing.

He’s had a full offseason with the Browns, and will be the Week 1 starter this time.

First of all, the rushing ability provides an intriguing floor:

• 10th in carries per game (6)

• 11th in rush yards per game (29.2)

And an approximation of his 2020 self would be huge:

• 1st in yards per attempt (8.9)

• 5th deep ball completion % (50.8)

• 7th under pressure accuracy rating (6.7)

The skill position players look good, highlighted by Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and newcomer Elijah Moore, who the coaching staff seems to be excited about.

Overall, Watson is a solid pick in round 7 because of his history. He’s still not even 28 years old.

Geno Smith did it last year at age 31.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL), ADP 66.4, RB22:

We’re all looking forward to see what Todd Monken can do with this collection of players. He wants to add pace.

Pending his health, Dobbins can benefit big.

He flashed at the end of '22, especially from Weeks 14-17:

In that stretch he averaged over 17 carries per game and never had fewer than 93 rush yards.

In Weeks 14-15 he went for over 120.

And he still has elite athleticism:

• 2nd in juke rate (43.5%)

• 3rd in breakaway run rate (10.9%)

It feels like there’s a lot of untapped talent just beneath the surface that’s been tamped down by injury.

This could finally be the year all of that talent is realized.

🏈 Vikings OC Lauds RB’s Versatility

💪 Odell’s Optimism: No Limitations in Practice

🚑 Burrow’s Exit: Bengals QB Leaves with Strain

🏥 Ramsey Needs Surgery, To Miss Start of Season

🏈 Full Stafford: Rams QB Looks Healthy

😱 Patriots Veteran RB Suffers Leg Injury

👟 Close Call For Wilson: Jets WR OK

🪶 Raven Safety Stepping Up As Leader

🫣 Undrafted WR Leaves Practice in Baltimore

Almost to the weekend, fans. Onward and upward!

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