The Touchdown Press
Posts
📈 15 Players going way TOO LATE in fantasy drafts

📈 15 Players going way TOO LATE in fantasy drafts

Grab them at a value

Joe Holka
June 06, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

Players you can draft at a discount 🏈
How to see the value others don’t 💸
Who’s turning heads at OTAs 👀
The latest NFL signings and rumors 😏

If you want to win in fantasy football this year, you need to identify sleepers.

Anyone can blindly follow ADP…

Here are 15 players going WAY TOO LATE in drafts:

Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 41.9, WR22:

Finished 16th in yards per route run as the WR19 in points per game,

In Russell Wilson’s worst-ever season.

Offensive-minded head coach Sean Payton should get more out of him.

Dameon Pierce (HOU), ADP 63.5, RB20:

• 68 evaded tackles ranked 11th

• 73.8% opportunity share ranked 6th

He lost some steam as the year went on.

So Devin Singletary’s presence may actually help keep him fresh.

Tyler Lockett (SEA), ADP 64.5, WR32:

He finished ‘22 as overall WR13.

D.K. Metcalf finished as WR16.

So why is Metcalf’s ADP 36 spots better?

Kyle Pitts (ATL), ADP 65.1, TE5:

Barring another injury, maybe we'll see the Pitts we expected last season.

Drake London should take some pressure off of the coverage.

The run-heavy attack will help too.

Pitts should get open at least.

Diontae Johnson (PIT), ADP 73.5, WR37:

His 27% target share (13th) only translated to WR28 overall.

What gives?

Johnson had 875 unrealized air yards (2nd most in the NFL)

With a little more Kenny Pickett accuracy, Johnson is on to something.

Brandin Cooks (DAL), ADP 83.1, WR42:

Still has the ability to stretch the field.

Playing across from CeeDee Lamb should provide him with some softer coverage.

Dak Prescott is 10th in air yards per throw and 8th in accuracy rating vs. man...

which is where Cooks excels.

Check out PrizePicks for an early bet on Cooks’s teammate CeeDee Lamb.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 95.9, RB30:

Was 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%) and 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3).

The 31.2% opportunity share should rise with Devin Singletary gone:

He ate up 53 targets last year.

I don't expect Damien Harris to get many.

Juju Smith-Schuster (NE), ADP 101.8, WR50:

Jakobi Meyers ran 333 snaps from the slot for the Pats in '22 (16th most),

While earning a top-30 target share and the 8th-best QB rating per target.

Juju and his 9th-ranked route win rate will slide nicely into that role.

Kirk Cousins (MIN), ADP 106.4, QB13:

Is he not a starter in 12-team leagues?

• 3rd-most air yards (5056)

• 1st in deep ball accuracy rating (6.8)

• 7th in red zone accuracy rating (7.4)

• 3rd-best deep ball completion % (47.8)

Those pass catchers aren't bad either.

Irv Smith (CIN), ADP 150.7, TE17:

He’s never lived up to the hype, but I'll take him at 150 every day.

Hayden Hurst's in Carolina, so Smith is the obvious starter in a powerful attack.

Even with Cincy's crowded target competition, there's value here.

Kareem Hunt (FA), ADP 203.1, RB61:

He was pushed out in Cleveland.

But he was relevant as recently as his injury-shortened '21:

• 10th in true yards per carry

• 6th in fantasy points per opp.

Can still catch passes out of the backfield.

Does anyone want him?

Darius Slayton (NYG), ADP 203.6, WR86:

Low target share didn't help.

But he's had another offseason with Brian Dabolll and Daniel Jones.

Also:

• 94th percentile speed

• 5th in yards per target (10.2)

• 10th in yards per reception (15.7)

Mac Jones (NE), 206.6, QB30:

He was bad last year, but QB30?

Poor coaching situation is improved with Bill O'Brien at OC.

Mac had some alright metrics:

• 6th in deep attempts (69)

• 10th in deep ball accuracy rating (6.1)

• 8th in RZ completion percentage (59.6%)

Jimmy Garoppolo (LV), ADP 211.1, QB31:

Las Vegas passed the ball nearly 8% more than San Francisco last season.

They had the 11th most pass yards per game under Derek Carr.

Jimmy was 3rd in adjusted yards per attempt (7.9).

And 2nd in pressured comp % (55.6).

Russell Gage (TB), 215.5, WR105:

He’s still only 27 and just two years removed from solid time in Atlanta.

He ended the year averaging 4.5 receptions over the last 3 games.

He's not the Bucs' WR1, but you can get the value for free.

Warning shot:

People have been telling me to do this for years, but 2023 is the last season my fantasy football draft kit will be free.

However, if you deposit $5 here🔗(Code:JHS100) and fill out this Google form🔗, you will be grandfathered into a FREE draft kit in 2024 and a MASSIVE discount in 2025.

And it's risk free…

If you complete above and don't make the playoffs this year after opening my newsletter every day, I'll 100% refund this $5 deposit.