💰3 Games to STACK on DraftKings & FanDuel If you want to WIN In Week 8

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DFS is hard...

This will help you do better in Week 8.

Because to win on DraftKings, you MUST get these 3 NFL games right:

That's why I speak with @LordReebs (http://sharpfootballanalysis.com) every week.

He's going to help us break it all down.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3.5):

It feels like we circle Detroit every week.

Maybe we can stop someday, but not today.

The defense still stinks.

Let's start with Tua Tagovailoa (DK $6,200 - FD $7,700).

Week 7 wasn't his cleanest game, BUT…

Let's revisit that Lions D:

• 25th in TD rate allowed

• 22nd in comp rate allowed

• Allowed 4 top-10 scoring weeks

• 3.1 yards per pass attempt allowed

• 42.4% of all drives reach RZ or score (2nd worst)

It just goes on.

They're also aggressive with the blitz…

They blitz on 35% of opponent drop backs.

They play man on over 40% of plays.

Miami doesn't see that too much, owing to the offensive speed.

How does Tua react?

Tua vs. the blitz:

• 5th in TD rate

• 6th in EPA per drop back

• 8th in yards per pass attempt

If Detroit wants to get aggressive, big play potential is there.

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Speaking of big plays, Tyreek Hill (DK $8,500 - FD $ $8,700) is in the convo.

Look at the usage:

• 31% of Miami targets

• Targeted on 34% of his routes

• Leads NFL in yards per route run

• Leads NFL in targets on play action.

Obvs doesn't see a lot of man coverage.

Outside of Tyreek, Jalen Waddle (DK $6,700 - FD $7,800) is the cheap play.

It's a thin target tree.

He has 24 fewer targets than Hill, but 28 more than the next Dolphin.

Sure, the inconsistency is there,

But he'll have plenty of spike weeks.

Anyone else?

TE Mike Gesicki (DK $3,800 - FD $5,400) has run routes on 70% of team drop backs.

With this usage, he drew 20% of team targets last week.

And Detroit is awful vs. TEs, allowing a 9.1% TD rate.

On a bad TE slate, you could do worse.

Miami's best back is Raheem Mostert (DK $5,900 - FD $6,800).

More Lions stats:

• Allowed 10 RB TDs (2nd)

• Allow 5.4 YPC to RBs (30th)

• Allow 22.9 Rush PPG to backfields

Mostert went over 100 yards in 2 of the last 3 games, with targets too.

He'll get the looks.

On the Detroit side Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $6,900 - FD $7,200) remains cheap.

Cheap enough anyway.

He'll be the most-owned Lion.

And for good reason…

He's targeted on 33% of routes.

With that kind of volume, he can overcome Miami, who has been decent vs. the slot.

He just needs to clear protocol and he's ready to plug in.

Hopefully he gets over the injury bug soon.

T.J. Hockenson (DK $4,900 - $ FD $5,300) is never a fun play.

Kind of meh, in fact.

But Miami allows 84% catch rate to TEs.

Finally, D'Andre Swift (DK $6,800 - FD $7,500) is trending to play.

He won't be popular after the injury.

That's it for the Lions.

The scoring has dried up a bit, so tread lightly.

And don't talk to us about Jared Goff.

Yuck.

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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5):

This game should be fun.

The Saints have allowed teams to hit their implied total 6 times (most in league).

They've hit their own implied total in 5 games (tied for most).

Las Vegas has punched back, too.

The Raiders offense is good.

Believe it or not, they are FIRST in the NFL in scoring rate per drive. Amazing.

Yeah they struggle to finish, but there's potency here.

So let's talk Josh Jacobs (DK $7,500 - FD $9,000)...

Jacobs has 30 PPR points in 3 straight games.

That's a first since 2018 Todd Gurley.

Also:

• 2nd in success rate per run

• 84% of backfield touches (1st)

• 2nd in rate of run for 1st down or TD

And he catches balls.

The Saints D are 24th in YPC allowed,

and 21st in points per game to RBs.

Don't forget last week.

The performance they gave up to the Cardinals' RBs was bad.

Jacobs should pop.

Davante Adams (DK $8,600 - FD $8,500) is ready for a big one in Week 8.

He's 3rd in target share, and 9th in target rate per route.

Plus, Marshon Lattimore didn't practice.

Even if he had, the Saints have given up some astounding numbers lately.

He may even boost his QB.

Derek Carr (DK $5,900 - FD $7,200) is never exciting, but you know what?

New Orleans is dad last in pressure rate.

A Carr-Adams stack isn't the worst idea.

(Even though Sam Ehlinger's way cheaper)

On the other side, there should be two popular Saints:

• Chris Olave (DK $6,000 - FD $6,900)

• Alvin Kamara (DK $7,100 - FD $7,800)

Let's start with Kamara and his usage.

He has so many touches over the last few weeks.

Just hasn't gotten into that end zone.

Taysom Hill is vulturing those chances.

But even without a TD, Kamara could still hit 20 PPR points.

As for Olave…

He has an average of 10.6 targets over his last 5 games.

That's 27% of the team's.

If Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas continue to be out, start with confidence.

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So humor me here.

The Raiders have allowed a top-8 fantasy QB every week this season.

Cue Andy Dalton (DK $5,500 - FD $7,100)?

Sure, he's a little riskier than Carr,

but that's why fantasy football is fun.

For TEs, Juwan Johsnon (DK $3,200 - FD $5,200) could see some ownership.

As of Thursday, Adam Trautman hadn't practiced.

LV allows a whopping 13% TD rate to TEs.

It's the worst in the NFL.

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Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5):

I'll be there in my Kyler Murray jersey.

(Hopefully the people will be nice to me.)

I'm looking for an onslaught in this one.

The Vikings are due for some regression…

Oddly, Minnesota has overachieved vs the pass. Their defense:

• 29th in comp rate

• 29th in yards per completion.

• Allows 8.4 yards per pass attempt (last)

And yet,

• 7th in the league in TD rate.

They're giving up all the yards, TDs should follow.

Kyler Murray (DK $7,500 - FD $8,200) is due for some regression of his own.

Got just a 2.5% TD rate.

Career, that number is over 4%.

We know he will eventually have that big 30 point game.

Could this be the week?

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $7,400 - FD $7,900) got 14 targets in Week 7.

That was 48.3% of Arizona's targets.

That's encouraging enough,

But there's more…

The coaching staff moved Hopkins around the field.

Lined up left, right, out wide, and in the slot.

He also went into motion more than any other game.

That creativity opened him up.

Combine with potential negative game flow, and Hop could pop.

If you can't fit in Hopkins, look at Rondale Moore (DK $5,100 - FD $5,500).

Yeah, he had a poor week. This one will be different.

Robbie Anderson should be caught up and ready to play on the perimeter.

Rondale can bump back into the slot.

Why is that good?

Well, it's his natural position.

And Minnesota vs. the slot:

• 25th in yards per catch

• 16th in yards per target

There's a soft underbelly in there for Rondale to take advantage.

Arizona's backfield is just too muddy to discuss.

It all hinges on James Conner's availability.

Tread lightly until we get clarity.

With the Vikings, the pricing is difficult.

Salaries make it tough to fit these guys.

So what do we do?

Let's start with the fact that Arizona likes to blitz on 38% of passing plays.

Where can we take advantage?

Start with Adam Thielen (DK $6,200 - FD $6,200).

When Vikes are blitzed:

• 46% air yards share

• 24% team target share

• 22.6% of routes are targeted

When they aren't blitzed:

• 24% air yards share

• 18.5% team target share

• 16% of routes are targeted

Just need to be careful with Kirk Cousins (DK $6,100 - FD $7,800).

He struggles vs. the blitz.

It's a murky situation here for sure.

What about the star?

Justin Jefferson (DK $9,100 - FD $9,000) has a hefty tag.

But he's a good football player.

Sometimes it's just that simple.

Two more Vikes require more thought…

Is this an Irv Smith (DK $3,500 - FD $5,00) week?

It's definitely a tough week for TEs.

The matchup works. Arizona's D vs. the position:

• 29th in TD rate

• 28th in yards per target

• 31st in catch rate allowed

• 28% of points against scored by TEs.

Set up for Irv.

Dalvin Cook (DK $7,600 - FD $8,200) has been a mixed bag, esp in passing game.

He's on pace for a career low in catches per game.

It's like he and Derrick Henry got Freaky Friday'd.

If you want to play a home fave with a high team total, go for it.

But it's tough to pay.

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