🤑3 Games to STACK on DraftKings & FanDuel If you want to WIN In Week 9

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DFS is hard...

This will help you do better in Week 10.

Because to win on DraftKings, you MUST get these 3 NFL games right:

It's time for my weekly conversation with @LordReebs (http://sharpfootballanalysis.com).

We're talking about the most important games of NFL Week 10.

Check it out.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-5.5):

Second-highest O/U on the main slate.

It seems like stacking Miami this year has been profitable, but why this game too?

Well, both defenses are sort of meh.

• Miami is 26th in points allowed per drive

• Cleveland is 27th in the same category

The one thing about Miami is they have a weird home field advantage.

Opponents only score on 22% of drives when in Miami.

Maybe it's the sun.

Anyway, let's start with the Dolphins.

Salaries are finally making it tough to stack.

The good news is that now that Miami's backfield is a split, we don't have to think.

The production will be from Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle.

Tyreek Hill (DK $9,100 - FD $9,000) is difficult to jam in there, even alone.

The price is justified though. Why?

Play action.

This year, play action passes are worth 18% more points than typical targets.

Tyreek:

• 43 targets off play action (1st)

• 530 yards off play action (1st)

Tua Tagovailoa (DK $6,700 - FD $8,100) has some terrific fantasy stats:

• QB1 in EPA per drop back

• QB1 in points per pass attempt

• Averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt

Cleveland's D makes it look promising too.

They play that cover 3 scheme so often.

Bet you can't guess the highest-rated QB vs. cover 3...

Yeah, it's Tua.

He should be able to get cookin' here.

Lest we overlook it, Cleveland can push back.

Nick Chubb (DK $8,100 - FD $9,000) is a good player:

• 23.2 expected points added (1st)

• Career-high rate with 11 personnel (over 50%)

On such carries, he averages 7 yards.

Want perspective on that?

Only 12 QBs average 7 yards per PASS ATTEMPT in such formations.

Whoa. That's crazy efficiency.

The one issue is vulnerability to game flow.

Remember, he only had 12 carries vs. the Pats a few weeks ago.

So if Miami rolls, it could hurt.

Amari Cooper (DK $6,500 - FD $7,800) warrants some discussion in Week 10.

Yes, we're aware of his bizarre home-road splits.

Has a TD in every home game, but bombs on the road. What's up with that?

I dunno, but the objective stats are here…

Amari Cooper:

• Faces man cov on 39.6% of routes (3rd)

• Targeted on just 18.8% of routes vs. zone (47th)

• Targeted on 35.6% of routes vs. man (5th)

Miami is 4th-highest rate of man coverage.

What they do lends itself to Cooper.

PrizePicks seems out of whack on Amari this week.

They have him for just 61.5 receiving yards.

I'd RUN to take that OVER.

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If you're looking for a cheaper Brown,

look for Donovan Peoples-Jones (DK $4,300 - FD $5,700).

• Been a WR3 in 5 of 8 games

• Double-digit PPR points in 4 of last 5

No scores yet,

But you get the production at cost.

The last interesting guy for Cleveland is Kareem Hunt (DK $5,300 - FD $5,800).

If Miami rolls, the game flow favors him.

If he can get 15 or so touches, including in the red zone, that's all he'll need.

Could pay off as a cheaper pivot.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5):

Nice to have KC back on the main slate.

Jacksonville has been the darling of DFS.

With the highest O/U on the slate, here's why we like this matchup:

Both teams get into the red zone:

• KC is 1st in rate of plays in RZ (19.8%)

• JAC is 3rd in rate of plays in RZ (17%)

They both get those scoring opportunities.

And KC games have been closer than you think.

They're 0-4 ATS at home.

So let's start with the Jags.

Trevor Lawrence (DK $5,400 - FD $7,000) has a great price again.

His stacks last week were profitable too.

Especially with Travis Etienne and the bring back with Davante Adams.

Lawrence is 7th in EPA per drop back.

That's important because of the Chiefs…

KC:

• 30th in passing points allowed per attempt

• Face 3rd most pass attempts per game.

Put them together, they let up a ton of points to the passing game.

So this environment is favorable.

Travis Etienne (DK $7,100 - FD $8,000) is finally popping off like we thought!

He has 27 and 30 touches last 2 games.

And while he hasn't tapped into that pass-catching potential.

The Chiefs could help in that area.

Etienne is the number 1 optimal player on RunTheSims

He's in 26% of optimal lineups over the 10,000 simulations.

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This could be a decent spot for Christian Kirk (DK $5,900 - FD $6,800):

• 31% of team targets in Week 9

• Over 20% of team targets every game

• Lines up in the slot on 67% of all snaps

KC is 26th in receptions allowed to the slot, and allow a 5% TD rate.

This is a 3-prong WR room, so what about Marvin Jones (DK $4,300 - FD $5,400)?

He runs a route on over 80% of drop backs.

And leads the team in target rate when Lawrence is under pressure.

KC can get after the QB…

Finally, Zay Jones (DK $4,400 - FD $5,500) seems underpriced.

But is he?

He has 0 targets this year over 20 yards.

Tread lightly.

The KC side is fairly cut and dry.

The stacks are just super expensive.

But we know how the passing game is absolutely CRUSHING it the last month.

Passing points are 15% over expectation.

Of course, Patrick Mahomes (DK $7,800 - FD $8,500) is the beneficiary.

Passing yards last 4 weeks:

• 292

• 338

• 423

• 446

Without Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts on the slate, Mahomes is locked into that bonus.We know what we will get with Travis Kelce (DK $7,800 - FD $8,500):

• 17 targets last week

• 3 straight games over 100 yards

And the Jags are 31st worst D vs. TEs.

Not much more to say.

The WRs for KC have been muddy so far.

But now JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK $6,000 - FD $7,000) has emerged!

JuJu's recent splits:

• 5-113-1

• 7-124-1

• 10-88

And he runs 65% of snaps from the slot. Guess why we mention that.

Yup, Jacksonville is weak there.

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New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5):

This seems like a surprising game on paper. So why did Reebs pick it?

Partly to take a break from the Lions.

(Go ahead and play Fields, though)

But this game has a plethora of mini stacks that you can play sans QBs.

It's been a tough run out for Kenny Pickett (DK $5,100 - FD $6,600).

In his defense, the situation has been brutal for the rookie QB.

Just bad matchup after bad matchup.

But coming off a bye, vs. this Saints team?

Who knows…

Saints D:

• 30th in pressure rate

• 20th in passing points per game

• 16th in passing points per attempt

It could be Pickett's outlet.

More importantly, his guys could open up…

Diontae Johnson (DK $5,800 - FD $6,600) has 5 catches+ in each game this year.

George Pickens (DK $5,000 - FD $5,600) has most yards with Pickett under center.

And now Chase Claypool is gone.

Want more Saints numbers?

• 23rd in catch rate to WRs

• 23rd in yards per target to WRs

• 23rd in TD rate to opposing WRs

Johnson and Pickens could get it going.

What about the TE?

Pat Freiermuth (DK $4,200 - FD $5,600) is targeted on 24% of routes (TE4).

Sure, he only has 1 TD.

But for his cost, he's a busy man.

You just never know.

For the Saints, Alvin Kamara (DK $7,400 - FD $8,600) will draw high ownership.

He's top-5 in the sims, and may be up to 25% owned.

But Pittsburgh gives up lots of receiving points to RBs.

That's always been Alvin's specialty.

We like Chris Olave (DK $6,800 - FD $7,500) a lot.

Yes, he's priced up now.

But he's the clear-cut WR1 for NO.

There's no competition, and the matchup is optimal.

Why?

Pittsburgh Defense:

• Allowed most TDs from outside the RZ

• Allow 12.7 yards per completion (last)

• Allow 20.7 PPR points per game to WR1s

• Allow 9.4 yards per attempt

• Allow 7.1% TD rate to WRs.

It just goes on.

Olave is super charged this week.

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