🔥3 Games to STACK on DraftKings if you want to WIN in Week 4

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Every week, I go deep with @LordReebs about the most important NFL games.

The white whale has eluded us (thus far) with some cashes, but no big DFS wins.

Trust the process.

Is this the week?

Jacksonville (+7) at Philadelphia:

The price on Jalen Hurts ($8,200) has finally gone up. It's easy to see why.

He was QB2 last week with minimal rushing points. 

He's cooking!

But, the Jags represent a tough test. 

(Really!)

They'll attack Hurts.

Under pressure, he's just 9 of 24,

with just 4.1 yds per attempt. 

We'll see if he can reverse the trend.

Still...

His route tree is thin:

A.J. Brown ($7,400), and DeVonta Smith ($5,800) are DFS winners.

Dallas Goedert ($4,500)? Not so much.

Targeted on just 13.8% of passes (TE23).

More opportunity lies in the backfield.

Miles Sanders ($6,000) has emerged.

Since the Eagles haven't really trailed, his usage is a winner.

He sees 75% of the backfield touches.

Problem is, he's not used in the pass game, and he hasn't been scoring TDs.

Still, script and schedule are favorable.

RunTheSims has him as a 63.7% favorite to reach the PrizePicks over of 54.5 rush yds.

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On the other side of this game, Evan Engram ($3,400) could be popular.

Doug Pederson has them on track, adding potential. 

Jags have scored on 48% of possessions,

and have run the most RZ plays.

They're one of the better offenses so far.

Which means…

Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) is finally an option.

He's made a huge jump, mostly against cover 3 defenses. 

Against them, he's 28 of 32, with 9.9 YPA.

But the Eagles are different.

They run cover 4 or 6 more than half the time.

Against that, Lawerence declines.

YPA goes down to 6.6 (22nd).

If he performs vs Philly, we'll start to see him in a new light.

We've been talking about Christian Kirk ($6,600) all summer.

But believe it or not, 

Zay Jones ($4,200) has more expected FP.

So maybe Kirk is just running hot?

That backfield is interesting too.

James Robinson ($6,400) has been the comeback story of the year so far. 

But like their opponents, the Jags haven't trailed much. 

If that happens, will we see more Travis Etienne ($5,400)?

People have left him for dead, 

but we still believe he could be a thing.

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Buffalo (-4) at Baltimore:

Is this line disrespectful to Baltimore?

They're having success on the back of Lamar Jackson ($8,300). 

He's the no. 1 passer against the blitz:

With 12 yards per attempt, and an 83.3% comp rate. 

It's a different story vs 4 or fewer rushers…

In such scenarios, Lamar's numbers go down:

• 6.7 yards per attempt

• 53% of passes (dead last)

• 31st in epa per drop back

Bills have only blitzed 4 times this year. 

It may slow Lamar down.

A slower Lamar may affect Mark Andrews ($7,100) as well. 

He's been a beast at a tough position-- one of only 2 good TEs.

(When Tyler Conklin is TE3, there are only 2 good ones.)

With Kelce missing from the slate, you can pay up for Andrews's ridiculous tgt share.

Rashod Bateman ($5,600) has been very good, he's just not on the field enough. 

He actually has a catch of over 30 yards in all 3 games.

In Weeks 1-2, he made his bones with big plays, but didn't have it last week. 

Big upside from a tournament standpoint.

Is J.K. Dobbins ($5,300) there yet?

He didn't have great volume in his return.

Buffalo is also strong vs RBs,

making Dobbins a leap of faith play.

For the Bills, Stefon Diggs ($8,400) is the explosive guy. 

He'll be too expensive to stack with Josh Allen ($8,400), which could limit you. 

Reebs loves Allen this week. 

One reason?

The Ravens D has underwhelmed, letting up 8 plays of 20 or more yards...

To the Pats.

Allen is NOT Mac Jones, so we're fine with paying up.

Speaking of Allen,

He's favored to hit the crazy high over of 280.5 passing yards on PrizePicks.

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Or if you're worried about the wind, maybe it's an easy under? 

Let me know below which side you take.

For an Allen stack, we like Gabe Davis ($6,600) over Isaiah McKenzie ($5,100).

Davis is on the field for 96% of drop backs.

McKenzie got hot last week, but cooled off when Miami stopped blitzing. 

Ravens won't blitz much, so lean Davis.

Devin Singletary ($5,900) doesn't excite.

There's too much Cook and Moss rotating in to lower the floor. 

He'll be out there in pass protection,

but he just won't have the targets.

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Denver (+1.5) at Las Vegas:

Yeah, these teams have underperformed.

But the afternoon slate is filled with yuck,

so this game takes the late slot.

It has serious bust-out potential.

Russell Wilson ($6,700) has been miserable the last couple of weeks.

The Raiders could save him, though.

They have allowed a top-10 QB in all 3 weeks. 

They don't play much zone, lining up that way just 61% of the time (27th).

Why is that relevant?

Russ is still the no. 1 QB in yards per attempt vs man coverage.

He feels due in this spot.

His WRs should also benefit.

Courtland Sutton ($6,400) is targeted on 42% of routes vs man coverage.

That's tops in the league. 

He can go up and get it outside the numbers. 

Jerry Jeudy ($5,500) will save you some scratch, but is a little banged up.

Still, it's a good matchup,

and he'll see targets.

Courtland Sutton ($6,400) is targeted on 42% of routes vs man coverage.

That's tops in the league. 

He can go up and get it outside the numbers. 

Jerry Jeudy ($5,500) will save you some scratch, but is a little banged up.

Still, it's a good matchup,

and he'll see targets.

TEs have done nothing for Denver.

So the WRs are the guys.

Don't even hate stacking them this week.

Want to bet on Russ struggling?

The Raiders allow big numbers to RBs.

Javonte Williams ($6,600) and Melvin Gordon ($5,800) are in play,

but answer me this...

What's up with Mike Boone ($4,000) eating touches?

It's frustrating for Javonte fans like me.

The pricing is tricky on the Vegas side.

Davante Adams ($8,300) is tough to pay for. He may not be widely owned.

The yardage hasn't been there. 

But he is still scoring TDs and getting RZ looks, which keeps the upside high. 

He's the look if you're stacking the game.

Josh Jacobs ($5,300) might be a chalk play this week. 

And we've never liked chalky Jacobs,

Even with 80% of the backfield touches.

Remember:

Two weeks ago, the Raiders were up 23-0 at the half. 

Jacobs still didn't produce.

If not in that spot, then when?

Let's round it out with Darren Waller ($5,600).

He won't have much ownership at this cost.

He's had 2 weeks of top-10 TE numbers.

Many people will pay down at the position, so maybe he'll be a good pivot play.

An interesting game theory play for sure.

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