🤑3 Games To STACK On DraftKings If You Want To WIN In Week 7

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

We are now 105-90 (lifetime) with our free daily PrizePicks plays directly in this email.

Let's keep it going!

Winning DFS is not easy...

To have a shot...

You need to know everything about the most important games.

This will help you on DraftKings in Week 7:

Every week, I go deep with @LordReebs on my show.

You have to get these 3 NFL games right…

Detroit at Dallas (-7):

Feels like a while since we've talked Cowboys.

In Week 7, it all starts with the return of Dak Prescott (DK $6,700 - FD $7,500).

Cooper Rush wasn't bad.

But we saw flaws when they were pressed to pass.

DAL is 8% below pass expectation w/ him.

Dak will benefit all; none more than CeeDee Lamb (DK $6,800 - FD $7,700).

Let's look at his good metrics:

• 33.3% of team targets (1st)

• targeted on 31% of all routes (4th)

• Min. 27% of Dallas targets in every game

These haven't translated to top-end value.

YET.

Lamb has the advantage of versatility.

He's basically 50-50 slot and border guy.

Detroit allows:

• 91% catch rate to slot WRs

• 11 yards per target to the slot, more than they allow on the boundary.

Lamb should feast here.

What else will Dak change?

Without Dak, Cowboys are 30th in rate of drives that reach RZ.

He should improve that, and Ezekiel Elliott (DK $6,000 - FD $6,900) will benefit.

Zeke has 86 touches this year...

Only FOUR in the red zone. Wow.

So if we can't count on catches, why Zeke?

Detroit's D, that's why:

• Allow 5.5 yards per rush

• Allow 22.4 rushing points per game

Maybe it's finally Zeke's week.

Maybe not so much for the next Cowboy.

Michael Gallup (DK $5,100 - FD $6,100) is listed on PrizePicks for 9.5 fantasy points.

Reebs and our Sims like the UNDER.

How about you?

Use CODE: JHS at this link & claim your 100% deposit match up to $100:

Remember, Gallup is volatile even with Dak healthy.

But he runs a higher rate of routes than you'd think.

With Detroit's D, anything's possible.

We've beat the drum on Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK $7,100 - FD $7,500) all year.

We last saw him play only 32% of the snaps vs. New England.

That's not the real Sun God.

Even with that game, he's targeted on 33.3% of routes.

It's second only to Tyreek Hill.

Like Detroit, Dallas is weak vs. the slot,

So Amon-Ra has appeal as usual.

Detroit coming off the bye should make him healthier too.

The guy can straight-up play.

Cheaper Lions worth mentioning:

• DJ Chark (DK $4,800 - FD $5,300)

• Josh Reynolds (DK $4,700 - FD $6,400)

Salary savers for sure.

But neither guy practiced Thursday.

Know who did?

D'Andre Swift (DK $6,800 - FD $7,800).

He was electric before the injury (albeit in a small sample size):

• Great pass catcher

• 10 or more yards on 22% of carries

• 69% of his yards on runs of 10 or more

And think of the ownership…

People will play "wait-and-see" with him.

They'll want to know what he looks like upon return.

That means we get him at low ownership.

Try out the Premium DFS & Betting Playbook (7-day free trial) for more PrizePicks Plays!

Seattle at LA Chargers (-5):

This is highest O/U on slate. 50 points.

Interesting.

Seattle's defense makes everyone look good (except the Cardinals).

So let's start with the Chargers.

Good bounce back spot after a bad week.

This Seattle D is bottom of the barrel in almost every metric.

If Keenan Allen (DK $6,700 - FD $7,300) returns from injury, it's a good spot.

Seattle gets crushed in the slot:

• 30th in yards per catch

• 26th in yards per target

And like D'Andre Swift,

People may wait.

What about Justin Herbert (DK $7,200 - FD $8,200)?

His o-line hasn't given him a lot.

Under pressure:

• 53% comp. rate

• 5.4 yards per attempt

Clean Pocket:

• 73% comp. rate

• 7.4 yards per attempt

• 9 of his 10 TD passes

Maybe Corey Linsley comes back and sets the o-line straight.

And Seattle can be beat, as we know,

With almost 30 implied points, Herbert is still worth the flyer.

Let's keep him in mind.

If Keenan Allen isn't back, Mike Williams (DK $7,200 - FD $7,800) will be a big play.

But is he worth it?

Yes, he gets a modest bump in target share when Allen is out.

But Seattle has one good defensive area:

Boundary WRs…

They only allow 60.4% catch rate to opposing boundary guys.

And just 1 TD all year to WR1s.

So, it could be sketchy for Big Mike.

Even without Allen.

And Josh Palmer is in concussion protocol.

That opens things up for Gerald Everett (DK $4,000 - FD $6,300).

Seattle has been crushed by TEs, allowing an 8.9% TD rate to the position (27th).

If Allen and Palmer are out,

Everett is a good play.

Austin Ekeler (DK $8,300 - FD $9,500) is the star, as we know.

Lots of other chalk priced near him.

Is he worth a priority look?

Again, think Seahawks:

• 15.6 rushing points per game (25th)

• 11.6 RB receiving points per game (27th)

Another interesting nugget…

With 3 or more WRs on the field, Ekeler averages 6.1 yards per carry.

when 2 or fewer, he averages 2.5.

Seattle allows 4.9 yards per carry to 11 personnel (20th).

Just something to think about.

For Seattle's attack, we have Kenneth Walker (DK $5,800 - FD $7,300).

Not much to say except he'll be chalky.

Had 92% of backfield touches in Week 6.

Only issue is he only ran a route on 40% of team drop backs.

BUT…

LAC is poor vs. the run, allowing 5.8 yards per carry (last).

They also give up the most yards on explosive runs over 10 yards.

So Walker is in play.

And the WRs?

RunTheSims, has bad news for the WRs over 10,000 simulations.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett's UNDERS are favored to hit.

Use CODE: HOLKA for 10% this tool

http://runthesims.com/holka

20% off if you are a subscriber to my premium DFS and Betting Playbook:

https://bit.ly/JHSplaybook

But which has a better shot?

Reebs likes DK Metcalf (DK $6,600 - FD $6,900) this week because:

• leads SEA in routes

• at least 20% target share every game

• LAC allows good numbers to opposing boundary guys.

However…

Tyler Lockett (DK $5,800 - FD $6,800) also lines up outside on 60% of routes.

So he isn't exactly dead here.

Talented enough to take advantage.

Try out the Premium DFS & Betting Playbook (7-day free trial) for more PrizePicks Plays!

Kansas City at San Francisco (-2.5):

First time all year missing both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on the slate.

Makes for a thin QB upside pool.

So let's start with the obvious guy,

Patrick Mahomes (DK $7,800 - FD $8,500)

SF D is banged up, missing guys.

Last week, they couldn't stop the Falcons and Marcus Mariota.

Mahomes could go off.

But can we stack him?

The obvious stack is Travis Kelce (DK $8,000 - FD $8,300).

The offense goes through him.

Last year we saw him struggle when he was challenged or bracketed.

Not this year. He's popping off.

The big question is ownership.

Cost makes him a tough stack. So…

Where else can we look on the Chiefs?

• Running game's a mess.

• Mecole Hardman's snaps are down

• Marquez Valez-Scantling had 0 last week

That leaves us with Juju Smith-Schuster (DK $5,600 - FD $6,700).

As the most consistent guy,

He's the sensible stack.

For the Niners, George Kittle (DK $5,300 - FD $6,600) gets first billing.

This is a big TE matchup.

Kittle runs routes on 93% of team drop backs.

Lately, that's a huge advantage.

Let's consider San Fran's approach to see why…

Since they are weak in the run game, they're 10th in pass rate over expectations.

IT doesn't sound mind-blowing, but last year they were bottom 5.

Think of the talent in the pass game.

With more raw targets, the value rises…

Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $5,500 - FD $7,200) has been a top-10 fantasy scorer lately.

Chiefs Defense:

• Sees 41 passing att. per week (most)

• 29th in passing points allowed per att

So Jimmy's numbers should be there at a reduced cost.

How does it affect the pass catchers?

Well, with more passes comes more opportunity.

In addition to Kittle, the WRs will benefit from more raw targets.

Deebo Samuel (DK $7,600 - FD $7,700) is in a great spot.

Coming off of 10 targets.

And Chiefs are soft vs. WR1s.

What? You say Deebo's not a true WR1?

Then…

Brandon Aiyuk (DK $6,600 - FD $6,300) should also benefit from targets.

We've always talked about target volume,

target share per route run being good.

It hasn't translated when SF doesn't throw.

If that's changing, watch out.

Especially against KC's powerful attack.

Try out the Premium DFS & Betting Playbook (7-day free trial) for more PrizePicks Plays!

Here's the thing Holkamaniacs --- this year we are keeping it painfully simple. I want to bring you the best NFL content and DFS picks right to your email inbox.

https://bit.ly/JHSplaybook

⤴️ This is the only place you will find all of my premium picks/analysis for the 2022 NFL season and beyond. It's everything I'm holding back on the show, in an easily digistible email to give you an edge the entire season.

There’s a FREE 7-day trial -- so it's completely risk free -- if you don't get literally 10x the value than what you are paying each month... cancel at the end of those 7 days, no questions asked.

The goal is to cut the noise, and bring you analysis that actually matters in today's DFS meta -- and of course provide you the best picks in the entire industry.

The Touchdown Press will always be free

➝Get Twitter threads early➝YouTube segment recaps➝Guest DraftKings lineup builder results➝6 FREE PrizePicks plays per week

Claim your free bet on PrizePicks (up to $100) Use code JHS100 for 100% deposit match (Legal states: AL, AK, AR, AZ, CA, DC, FL, GA, KS, KY, MD, MA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, VI, WV, WI, WY- and all Canadian provinces except Ontario)

This newsletter is curated/edited daily by friend of the show, Jamie Gellerstedt. Be sure to check out the GG Sports Podcast and support the show he is building!

Please let me know if you have any feedback!

Reply to this email... I would love to hear from you.

See you guys Sunday morning (9:00-11:00am EST) for "The Big Show"

-Joe