💎 7 hidden gems with LEAGUE WINNING upside

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

It’s days like this I really miss Thursday Night Football…

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Why I’m buying the Steeler QB ✅ 

• A pair of TEs hidden in powerful offenses 🂡

• Young players who’ll pitch in immediately 👶 

• The most recent news from NFL camps 🏈 

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 200.7, QB19:

Pickett had some strengths as a rookie, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure:

• 1st in deep ball catchable rate

• 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

• 6th in pressured completion percent

The Steelers showed an uncanny knack for improvement around Pickett as the season wore on. The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on.

It’s that kind of momentum building that makes me believe in this team and its coaching staff.

Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts.

I expect him to continue to take care of the football like he did in the back half of the season.

D’Andre Swift (PHI), ADP 69.4, RB25:

The fantasy community seems a little down on Swift after he failed to live up to his 2nd round price tag in ‘22.

A combination of injuries, coaching, and Jamaal Williams sort of derailed his year.

But Swift has a lot to offer as a individual talent:

• 2nd yards per touch (6.3)

• 5th yards per route run (1.78)

• 5th breakaway run rate (8.1%)

• 3rd in fantasy points per opportunity (1.13)

While Jalen Hurts doesn't target his RBs much and takes some of their rushing chances, the offense is still high powered.

I still don’t trust Rashaad Penny to stay healthy, either.

To me, Swift is reasonably safe in the 6th round, and could finish much better than RB25.

Miles Sanders himself rushed for 1,269 last year, so even with Rashaad Penny around, I think Swift reaches the OVER on his PrizePicks futures prop of 515.5 rush yards.

Gerald Everett (LAC), ADP 122.9, TE14:

Part of this choice is the fact that he’s part of the Chargers’ terrific passing offense behind Justin Herbert.

Their TEs have typically fared well over the last few years, and Everett finished as TE11 in fantasy PPG in 2022.

He also had career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and air yards, with 7 weekly finishes as a TE1.

Some other stats to consider:

• 5th in RZ targets (4TDs)

• 8th in yards after catch (302)

• 6th in contested catch rate (53.3%)

With a couple of teammates who are starting to earn a reputation for being injured, that TE2 draft position may end up being a significant bargain.

Jordan Addison (MIN), ADP 71.3, WR33:

The rookie steps into one of the league’s prolific attacks, playing across from possibly the best WR in the world.

Kirk Cousins and Minnesota averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game (3rd) in ‘22.

Adam Thielen ran 621 routes last season and got 107 targets, yet finished as WR41 in fantasy PPG on some fairly poor efficiency numbers.

Addison can remedy some of that right away with his youthful skill and athleticism.

Back in ‘21 while playing for Pitt he had 1,649 scrimmage yards and 18 TDs.

He saw less volume at USC in '22 but made top-25 in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.

He’s got a golden opportunity to step in and help the Vikings reach a new level right away. He’ll be an asset.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 85.9, RB26:

Cook was explosive in somewhat limited work as a rook:

• 3rd in yards per touch (6.3)

• 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3)

• 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%)

With a professional offseason under his belt, he’ll be ready to improve on his opportunity share (just 31.2%).

The report on Damien Harris is that he was brought in to be a bruiser, particularly in the red zone, which may cap some of the rushing TD upside for Cook.

However, Nyheim Hines, who some thought was in line for more of an offensive role this year, injured his knee and will miss the entire 2023 season.

That gives Cook a significant chance to out-perform his current ADP and become a fantasy mainstay.

Skyy Moore (KC), ADP 118, WR56:

Just as I was joining the Kadarius Toney hype, he tweaks his knee along with my confidence.

Moore is drafted about 45 spots after Toney right now, which may represent better value even though he didn’t really establish himself as a great fantasy option in 2022.

Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both out of Kansas City, which opens up 135 targets and over 1,200 receiving yards. A good amount of production.

Reports are that Moore can fill that vacated role from the slot most often, and he’s feeling much more comfortable this season going into camp.

That should lead to more looks from the superhuman Patrick Mahomes, and will increase his fantasy value.

If the chips fall, he could be a force.

Irv Smith (CIN), ADP 144.5, TE17:

Irv has let us down in fantasy for most of his career, but he’s young and his new situation is hopeful.

Hayden Hurst was TE12 in targets in ‘22, and was a top-20 TE whenever Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins missed time.

That would mean good opportunity for Irv whenever that situation arises again, and it will at least once or twice.

He’s had a rough go with injuries, but was 11th in ADOT (8.3), and 8th in yards per reception (12.2) back in 2020 before getting banged up and missing time.

If you believe in the Bengals, which most of us do, you could do far worse on a late-round TE who may finally live up to his potential this year.

🤷‍♂️ Witherspoon Without a Contract: CB Absent in Camp

💰 Kmet Cashes In: Bears TE Inks Mega Extension

🏃‍♂️ Valuable Penny: Fragile RB Leads First Team

🩹 Dolphins LT Undergoes Knee Surgery

🏈 Metchie Gets Green Light: WR Cleared for Camp

✍️ New York LT Signs GIANT Extension

💵 Howard's Big Bucks: Texans RT Inks Contract

🚑 Recovery is the Pitts as TE eases back in

📝 Seahawks Rookie RB Inks Four-Year Deal

💸 Herbert's Mega Extension: QB Signs BIG Contract

Now go tackle Thirsty Thursday and discuss these picks with your happy hour buddies.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.