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🏈 7 late MUST-DRAFT RBs

🏈 7 late MUST-DRAFT RBs

They'll help you defeat 97% of your friends

Joe Holka
July 16, 2023

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

What’s Cookin’ up in Buffalo? 🦬
Pierce locked and loaded in Year 2 🔒
RBs who are more than mere handcuffs 💪
Fantasy-relevant player news 🗞

James Cook (BUF), ADP 94.9, RB30:

Cook was explosive in somewhat limited work as a rook:

• 3rd in yards per touch (6.3)

• 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3)

• 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%)

With a professional offseason under his belt, he’ll be ready to improve on his opportunity share (just 31.2%).

The report on Damien Harris is that he was brought in to be a bruiser, particularly in the red zone.

While Harris can function as a receiver, it feels like a safe bet to say that Cook will take on much of that work.

If so, Cook has a significant chance to out-perform his current ADP and become a fantasy mainstay.

Dameon Pierce (HOU), ADP 69.6, RB22:

Pirece started the season as a fantasy darling.

In Weeks 3-14, he only had 2 weeks outside the top-25 PPR. He had 3 weeks as a RB1, proving owners correct.

The Texans proved they wanted to use his skill set:

• 10th in dominator rating

• 11th in evaded tackles (68)

• 15th in yards created (718)

• 6th in opportunity share (73.8%)

Houston’s O-line wasn’t very good, ranking dead last in generating yards before contact for RBs (PFF).

The team knew it and invested, adding Shaq Mason as a solid run-blocking guard.

Devin Singletary is now in Houston, but he may help to lighten the load on Pierce and keep him fresh all season.

With the offensive line rehaul in Houston, I think Pierce can be as good or better as he was in ‘22.

So I’m taking the OVER on his PrizePicks futures bet of 925.5 rush yards.

Elijah Mitchell (SF), ADP 123.4, RB41:

Mitchell is one of the most valuable backups in the league as the no. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey.

He had a tough go of it last season, but in 2021:

• 17th in breakaway runs (8)

• 16th in true yards per carry (4.5)

• 3rd in opportunity share (80.8%)

• 14th in fantasy points per game (15)

The durability concerns are real.

But they are for McCaffrey as well, who got almost 330 touches in '22.

Mitchell’s elite speed and burst put him on track for work, and make him a priority add if there’s an injury.

I don’t mind taking him as an RB3.

Jerick McKinnon (KC), ADP 127.4, RB43:

McKinnon may be getting older, but he made the most of his time as a member of the Chiefs’ powerful attack.

He led the league in reception TDs by a running back despite a pedestrian opportunity share, and showed off his talents when he was on the field:

• 9th in receptions (56)

• 4th in receiving yards (512)

• 8th in yards per route run (1.67)

• 1st in yards created per touch (5.56)

• 1st in fantasy points per opportunity (1.37)

Impressively, he was also 3rd in EPA.

The offense is going to remain potent as long as Patrick Mahomes is still running it, and even if McKinnon is behind Isiah Pachecho on the depth chart, he’s a proven veteran with talent and experience.

Drafting at this point feels right.

Jaylen Warren, ADP 135.3, RB44:

The Steelers love to feature their RB1 at a high rate, as Najee Harris took 313 touches over the course of ‘22.

That may very well continue, but Warren is waiting in the wings with elite athletic ability. When he played he was:

• 5th in juke rate (40%)

• 16th in breakaway run rate (6.5%)

• 5th in yards created per touch (3.82)

• Respectable 1.47 yards per route run

Should Harris get injured again, Warren immediately inherits that bell-cow status. To me, he's a late-round steal.

One of the top handcuffs in fantasy with the skills to generate standalone value.

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Tyjae Spears (TEN), ADP 170, RB53:

Spears is another terrific handcuff for Derrick Henry owners, but does he have standalone value in redraft leagues?

He showed great promise as the nation’s 5th-leading college rusher in ‘22, with 1,581 rush yards and 21 TDs.

He handled a big load as well, touching the ball nearly 18 times per game, on the ground and in the air.

Spears turned heads during the combine with his size and explosiveness. He landed in PlayerProfiler’s 91st percentile for burst score, which helps in the NFL.

Derrick Henry had 382 touches last season and runs with a punishing style. That may matter as he approaches 30.

As such, Spears is an excellent stash pick with the potential to step in and produce, especially if Henry breaks down.

Ty Chandler (MIN), ADP 194.7, RB70:

Conventional wisdom says the Vikings will give the lion’s share of Dalvin Cook’s 300+ touches to Alexander Mattison.

Even if they do, he’s has never handled an entire season with a full workload.

Chandler is the next man up in this situation, and will see work if there’s any type of injury or ineffectiveness in Mattison’s game performances.

While Chandler didn’t see much work for the Vikes last year, we can go back to his 2021 year at UNC, when he rushed 182 times for 1,092 yards and 14 total TDs.

At the very least it proved he could shoulder the big load.

With skills as a rusher and a receiver, he’s one to keep an eye on and maybe take a chance with a late draft pick.