🌋 7 players about to ERUPT in fantasy football

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Take on your Tuesday with fantasy football content!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Fantasy draft picks ready to GO OFF 💣

• Surprising sleepers with big potential 😴

• One peculiar late-round QB 🤔

• The latest news and notes from OTAs 📰

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) ADP 13.8, WR9:

Wilson started to erupt last season.

The talent was apparent while the rookie adjusted to NFL life:

He had the 6th-most total targets (147) and 11th-most raw air yards (1,575).

The law of averages should be on his side too.

He only scored 4 TDs on the 9th-most RZ targets (19). Plus the 6th-most unrealized air yards (837).

His struggles with Zach Wilson under center are well-worn territory by now. The per-game production doubled when anyone other than Zach was playing QB (8.6 PPR vs.17.2 PPR).

As long as Aaron Rodgers doesn’t fall off the QB cliff (or a literal one while smoking ayahuasca), Wilson will have the QB upgrade he needs.

Chris Olave (NO), ADP 19.3, WR12:

The numbers were remarkable for a rookie wideout:

• 9th in ADOT (14.0)

• 4th in deep targets (29)

• 15th in target share (26.7%)

• 3rd in air yards share (40.8%)

• 12th in route win rate (48.1%)

• 10th in yards per route run (2.57)

Like Garrett Wilson, the law of averages should help Olave as he was one of just 3 WRs to have over 1,000 yards and fewer than 5 TDs.

(per @AndrewErickson_)

There is a question as to how much of an upgrade Derek Carr represents over Andy Dalton, but he can certainly support big fantasy WRs, as evidenced by Davante Adams.

He can also build on his long game, as his 9.4 yards per attempt ranked 2nd.

Michael Thomas is presumably healthy, and can take some pressure off of Olave in coverage, assuming it all goes right.

Either way, Olave’s star is rising in New Orleans.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE), ADP 27.9, RB10:

Fantasy owners have been lying in wait for Steven-szn, and who could blame them?

His propensity for breaking tackles is well documented:

• 3rd in juke rate (40.3%)

• 3rd in evaded tackles (113)

He’s a big passing game contributor too:

• 4th in total receptions (69)

• 4th in target share (17.3%)

It adds up to14.7 PPR points per game (10th)

The Pats’ RB room lost Damien Harris, who was the main competition for touches.

The rest of the depth chart is uninspiring, with guys like unproductive James Robinson, and unproven Pierre Strong.

The bottom line?

Rhamondre will be the feature back in an offense that should regain some of its direction after suffering from very poor coordinating last year.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX), ADP 66.7, QB8:

Lawrence experienced enormous growth from his rookie season in ‘21 through last year:

• From 28th to 9th in accuracy rating

• From 32nd to 18th in yards per attempt

• From 32nd to 13th in true completion percentage

That’s a nice leap, and another year in the system should help maintain that upward trajectory.

The rushing prowess provides a solid floor too:

• 8th in RZ carries (14)

• 5th in rushing TDs (5)

• 10th in total rushing yards (291)

Overall, Lawrence is a well-balanced player still learning how to unlock his superpowers.

With his favorite targets back this year, and the addition of Calvin Ridley, the sky’s the limit for the QB and his talented offense.

I like him to best his PrizePicks season long prop yardage too. Check it out:

Michael Pittman (IND), ADP 57.3, WR30:

Pittman had a bit of a letdown year, but he still cracked the top-20 in a number of categories:

• Juke rate (4.9%, 12th)

• Target share (25.6%, 17th)

• Red Zone targets (15, 18th)

• Route win rate (50.3%, 7th)

• Yards after catch (346, 20th)

So what happened?

Well, Matt Ryan was in town, and he was Matty Ice-Cold last season.

He was 27th in yards per attempt and somehow 34th in air yards per attempt (if you’re counting at home, there are just 32 NFL teams).

None of that boded well for Pittman, who saw his yards per catch drop nearly 3 yards from 2021.

Pittman still has the talent to be a fantasy star.

He caught 99 balls in ‘22 and is the clear-cut WR1 for the Colts team with the 5th-easiest strength of schedule for WRs (FantasyPros).

A lot will depend on Anthony Richardson’s development, but the arm strength is there, along with a coach capable of molding young QBs.

Dalton Schultz (HOU), ADP 135.5, TE13:

Schultz finished the season as fantasy TE9 in points per game (9.5).

He was targeted 89 times with the Cowboys, catching 57 balls for 577 yards, and cracking the top-10 in true catch rate (93.4%, 9th).

He now joins a Houston Texans team that threw 131 passes to 6 different tight ends last season.

They caught 77 of them for 959 yards.

On paper, Schultz is the most talented and should be able to get a piece of the pie with the offense.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is known for his accuracy, and young QBs typically learn by leaning on shorter routes, at least anecdotally.

In that regard, Shultz’s lower ADOT (7.3, 16th) doesn’t scare me too much.

The opportunity is there for a productive year.

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 171.3, QB23:

Now we get to the dark horse eruption candidate.

Pickett’s strengths as a rookie came in areas where many developing passers struggle.

He was good when he threw deep and good when he threw under pressure:

• 1st in deep ball catchable rate

• 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

• 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

• 6th in pressured completion percentage

I’m more impressed by the growth he showed over the course of the season.

After throwing 8 picks in his first 5 starts, he only threw 1 more the rest of the way, playing smart and taking care of the football.

His offensive line followed suit, allowing 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Weeks 10-18.

Now the Steelers have bolstered it further, trading up in the draft for LT Broderick Jones.

Basically I see three things that merit a spot on this list for Pickett:

• He’s going into the year as the starter

• The proven pedigree of Mike Tomlin and staff, and the overall ability to improve

• The returning cast of pass catchers along with newcomer veteran Allen Robinson

Regardless of whether Pickett actually erupts, I expect more consistent and solid play from him.

😰 Shedding the Block: Charges Against Browns' DL Dismissed

 🟪 Vikings' Pass Rusher to Skip Minicamp Amid Trade Rumors

🦶 Veteran Kicker Working Out with Buccaneers

🧁 Cardinals' DB Expected to Report for Duty After All

↩ Tight End Turnaround: Commanders Player Impresses in Spring

🤔 Giants' Star Contemplates Sitting Out 2023 Season

😁 Ravens' Lamar Jackson Excited for New Offensive Wrinkle

🏈 The Catch that Got Away: Browns' WRs Likely to be Cut

🌟 Moore Than Meets the Eye: Browns' Breakout Star Lights up Camp

🏃‍♂️ Running Back Rollercoaster: Niners’ Back Takes a Dip in Depth Chart

Now go Tackle Tuesday's challenges and score big in your fantasy world!

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