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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Itā€™s been a cruel summer for some of us, but if you drafted a good fantasy team thereā€™s always hope.

Today in 5 minutes or less, youā€™ll learn:

  • Post-draft waiver adds to load up on šŸŽÆ 

  • Guys you and your league mates overlooked šŸ‘€ 

  • How they can help your team get stronger šŸ’Ŗ 

  • The latest cuts and news from NFL clubs šŸšØ 

Hunter Renfrow (LV), ADP 220.4, WR80:

I canā€™t really get on you too hard if no one in your league drafted Renfrow. After all, he only played in 10 games over the course of last season, and his production fell off a cliff.

A 36-330-2 line isnā€™t going to cut it for anyone.

However, there is some hope for the 4th-year player. All we need to do is rewind to 2021 to find his career-best volume:

  • 10th in TDs (9)

  • 6th in RZ targets (24)

  • 9th in yards after catch (449)

  • 10th in total fantasy points (259.1)

Last yearā€™s crash was mainly due to injuries and falling into the Josh McDaniels doghouse with some untimely fumbles.

Plus, his route-running skills are still considered solid and allowed him to eke out a top-10 finish in target separation in his limited work in ā€˜22.

Then thereā€™s Jimmy Garoppolo. Heā€™s the reason many are balking on Davante Adamsā€™s draft price this season. Paradoxically, he could be the reason to give Renfrow a look.

Jimmy was 4th in yards per attempt last year, but 26th in deep ball completion percentage. Renfrowā€™s ADOT is low, which could give him more shots underneath where Jimmy feels more comfortable. Jimmy also tends to do his best work vs. man coverage, against which Renfrow also excels.

No one is calling Renfrow a league winner, but if he can keep pace with Jakobi Meyers for the slot reps, heā€™s a rosterable player and a decent flex option depending on the week.

Jared Goff (DET), ADP 121.4, QB17:

No one wants to give Goff much credit, but to see that heā€™s being left out of so many drafts is a surprise.

In ā€˜22 he was 7th in passing yards and 10th in fantasy points among all QBs, without really any rushing upside to speak of.

Per Matthew Berryā€™s Fantasy Life:

Plus he provides some predictability. Goff averaged 21.6 fantasy PPG in 9 home games, which would have been good for QB5 if he could have replicated that success on the road.

If someone already drafted him as QB2 in your league hats off to them. If heā€™s still available, put Mac Jones or Sam Howell back on the shelf and reap the benefits of an explosive offense.

Behind on NFL research and need to catch up before your draft?

3 recent newsletters your competition probably already read this weekā€¦

- āœļø 17 players to help you WIN your draft

- šŸ’„ 17 BREAKOUT players

- šŸˆ 4 WRs you MUST DRAFT in fantasy football

Luke Musgrave (GB), ADP 186.2, TE21:

Itā€™s been no secret in recent days that the Packers plan to utilize their young TE in ways that may lead to a productive breakout.

Musgrave is 6ā€™6ā€ and 253 lbs., but moves like a much smaller man, which should help him find the space to work next to Christian Watson and company in the Packer offense.

In fact, the Packer pecking order behind Watson is totally unsettled at this point. Musgrave could end up being no. 2.

While his receiving numbers have never been eye-popping, he did handle a 12.3% target share in 2021 for Oregon State.

The Packers hold the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule for TEs (per FantasyPros), meaning if Musgrave is their guy, heā€™ll have plenty of chances to shine for Jordan Love.

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Kendre Miller (NO), ADP 163.4, RB55:

Miller was a workhorse for TCU in 2022, rushing for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on a whopping 224 carries.

It earned him a 23% dominator rating.

He has some good size on him at 215 lbs, and does have some receiving skill, even though it wasnā€™t his forte in school.

The Saints will play their first three games without Alvin Kamara against the Titans, Panthers, and Packers. None of them really get me too worried about game flow or usage for RBs.

And even when Kamara returns, heā€™s shown some decline:

  • 49th in juke rate

  • 48th in breakaway run rate

  • 46th in true yards per carry

Basically, it took the no. 1 snap share and the no. 4 opportunity share for Kamara to finish as PPR RB16.

Miller recently said he could ā€œpretty much do the same thingā€ as Kamara. Heā€™ll have to find his way onto the field first, but looking at the situation, there are multiple paths for that to happen.

If it does, heā€™ll finish much better than RB55.

Marvin Mims (DEN), ADP 189.6, WR61:

Denver is having a rough go of it in their WR room.

First they lost Tim Patrick for the year in an awful break for the veteran. Then they decided that K.J. Hamler was no longer part of their plan. Finally, Jerry Jeudy injured his hamstring a few days ago and looks to miss at least some regular season time.

That will provide Mims with an opportunity to contribute immediately, and if he isnā€™t rostered in your league, then you should log on a roster him TODAY.

Mims was a revelation at Oklahoma, catching 20 TDs over 3 seasons, and finishing both the ā€˜21 and ā€˜22 campaigns with over 20 yards per reception.

The 1,083 yards last year arenā€™t too shabby.

He also enters the league with 40-yard and burst scores well into the 90th percentiles.

Iā€™ve written a lot this summer about trusting Sean Payton to do a good job with the Denver offense. Suddenly it looks like Mims will be a big beneficiary of that coaching.

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Tyjae Spears (TEN), ADP 167.9, RB54:

Spears is a terrific handcuff for Derrick Henry owners, but does he have standalone value as well? I think so.

He showed great promise as the nationā€™s 5th-leading college rusher in ā€˜22, with 1,581 rush yards and 21 TDs while handling 18 touches per game. Itā€™s an impressive workload.

Spears also turned heads during the combine this year.

As for Big Dog Henry, he had 382 touches in ā€˜22 and runs with a punishing style. That may start to matter as he approaches 30.

Thereā€™s a sneakier reason I think Spears needs to be rostered, and itā€™s the schedule. According to FantasyPros, the Titans have the 4th-easiest SOS for RBs in ā€˜23, playing teams such as the Chargers, Browns, and Seahawks, all in the bottom 3rd of the league vs. the position.

But the kicker is the fantasy playoffs. Tennessee will play Houston in Weeks 15 and 17 with Seattle in between.

Look at the stats from @MBFantasylife of teams vs. RBs:

If Henry does get injured or hits a wall, it sets up Spears as a genuine league-winning candidate.

Kenny Pickett (PIT), ADP 152.4, QB21:

If Pickett shows the type of improvement he showed over the course of the SZN as a rookie, he is a lock to break out.

He had some strengths, particularly on deep passes and passes under pressure (you know, the easy stuff):

  • 1st in deep ball catchable rate

  • 6th in deep ball accuracy rating

  • 1st in pressured catchable pass rate

  • 6th in pressured completion percent

He also has some sneaky rushing upside, as he went for 237 yards last season (12th).

But I was most impressed by the Steelersā€™ penchant for improvement as a team last year.

The offensive line allowed 3 sacks per game from Weeks 1-9, and just 1.3 sacks per game from Week 10 on. Pickett himself got more comfortable too, throwing just 1 of his 9 picks after his first 5 starts. Smart player.

Basically, I think heā€™s a breakout candidate and should be rostered in all leagues this year.

šŸ•µļø Fantasy Mystery: Cardinals HC Silent on Starter

āœ‚ļø Kirksey-ya! Texans Release Veteran LB

šŸ’Ŗ Burks Returns to Practice: Titans' WR Back

āŒ Cardinals' C Out for Season with Undisclosed Injury

šŸ’° Taylor Trade Buzz: Interested Teams' Talks

šŸšŖ Colt No Longer in the Cards: Arizona Releases QB

šŸš‘ Murray on PUP List: Cardinals' QB Update

ā™ž Knight Moves: Jets Release RB

šŸ¬ Christian Cut: Dolphins Waive OT

šŸ’” Jaguars LB Miller Out for Season

Want to know the fantasy football MVP at every position this year? Tune in tomorrow because thatā€™s what Iā€™m writing about.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan ā€” pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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