🏈 The Best Fantasy Advice from This Week

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Saturday Slam! Get ready for the weekend blitz with our fantasy football newsletter.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Newsworthy snippets from this week 📰 

• The best June fantasy advice available 🏆

• The latest on NFL injuries 🚑

• What’s happening around the league? 🏈 

My pick for the best breakout RB:

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), ADP 40.8, RB14:

The scouting on Gibbs tells an auspicious story.

He showed he could play at Alabama.

He rushed for 926 yards and caught for another 444 in the passing game in 2022.

His 4.36 40-time is elite, in the 99th percentile.

According to Pro Football Focus, 53% breakaway run rate was 5th in this year’s draft.

It seems Gibbs would be ready to break out anywhere, but he landed in a very fortuitous situation with the Lions.

D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams combined for 421 touches last season (361 carries and 60 receptions). Both have left Detroit.

The rookie projects to split reps with David Montgomery, who hasn’t been quite as efficient as a runner, coming in 50th in true YPC (3.9), although he can contribute in the pass game.

Ultimately, there are plenty of RB touches up for grabs in Detroit’s efficient offense, and the reports from OTAs have been largely positive for Gibbs.

He’s set up nicely for a first-year breakout season.

A WR You Can Draft AFTER Round 5:

Courtland Sutton (DEN), ADP 95.1, WR48:

It feels like the whole fantasy world (myself included) is high on a big Broncos turnaround, and Jerry Jeudy has been the WR with the most emphasis.

What about Courtland Sutton?

He was underwhelming last yea, finishing in the PPR top-20 just 3 times. And those came from Weeks 2-4 before he sort of faded.

Sutton did have his chances last season:

• 100% route participation

• 25th in target share (23.5%)

• 11th in deep targets (25)

• 17th in unrealized air yards (693)

These are all decent opportunity numbers.

Did Sutton get open?

Sutton was 2rd overall in route win rate (44.3%), and was 10th in the same category vs. man.

The biggest issue was that Russell Wilson’s target accuracy to Sutton put him 63rd among all wideouts. Yuck.

The optimism for the upcoming season starts with the arrival of Sean Payton in Denver.

He could be the elixir this offense needs to function together. His offenses in New Orleans were nearly always in the top 3rd of the league.

Russell Wilson has insisted his is committed to the team and he showed up in great shape after losing a lot of weight in the offseason.

Sutton was overall WR43 last year, but if the big Bronco revival happens as we all seem to think, he’ll be a big boom candidate.

A quarterback about to absolutely ERUPT:

Trevor Lawrence (JAX), ADP 66.7, QB8:

Lawrence experienced enormous growth from his rookie season in ‘21 through last year:

• From 28th to 9th in accuracy rating

• From 32nd to 18th in yards per attempt

• From 32nd to 13th in true completion percentage

That’s a nice leap, and another year in the system should help maintain that upward trajectory.

The rushing prowess provides a solid floor too:

• 8th in RZ carries (14)

• 5th in rushing TDs (5)

• 10th in total rushing yards (291)

Overall, Lawrence is a well-balanced player still learning how to unlock his superpowers.

With his favorite targets back this year, and the addition of Calvin Ridley, the sky’s the limit for the QB and his talented offense.

I like him to best his PrizePicks season-long prop yardage too.

Check it out:

A RB you can target late for a zero-RB draft:

Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 62.8, RB19:

Not everyone is sold on Sanders’s Panthers outlook, but the guy can play good football:

• 5th in rush yards (1,269)

• 9th in total touchdowns (11)

• 14th in true yards per carry (4.7)

The most exciting thing about Sanders going to Carolina in my mind is that much of the coaching staff is already familiar with him from their time in Philadelphia. They know what he’s capable of.

They’ve said they want him to get back into a larger pass-catching role as an outlet for rookie QB Bryce Young (ESPN).

That’s exciting news — he caught 50 balls as a rookie in 2019, but never more than 28 since.

He’s a prime target for the zero-RB strategy.

A WR that could challenge Justin Jefferson for overall WR1:

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 14, WR10:

The Sun God was a steal last year in fantasy drafts. The savvy among us (ahem) got a great deal on some big production.

Amon-Ra’s 146 targets were 8th-most in ‘22, and would rank 9th in the target totals of the last 10 fantasy WR1s.

But consider, he missed Week 4 with an injury and had just 1 target vs. Dallas in Week 7.

We can never really assume a full bill of health or game flow, but if we extrapolate those games with the averages, he’d be well over 160 targets.

Amon-Ra’s metrics also put him in elite territory:

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

The ability to get open, the 93% catch rate, and the passing volume all at least put St. Brown in the conversation for top WR.

But what about the QB?

Jared Goff’s reputation is not quite square with his production.

Yes, he was a lot worse away from home than he was in Detroit, but overall, Goff has the ability to support a number 1 guy.

He had the 6th-most pass attempts over the course of the season (587), the 4th-best accuracy rating (8.0), the 7th-best deep ball completion percentage (44.4%), and the 10th-best accuracy rating under pressure (6.1).

Yes, Jameson Williams is in line for some targets along with itght end T.J. Hockenson and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

But Amon-Ra is still the first option in Detroit, and if things break right, he could smash that WR10 tag.

Some relevant injury news:

Juju Smith-Schuster (NE), ADP 103.5, WR50:

The fact that Juju is still dealing with a 2022 knee injury seems to be news to the Patriots, who brought him in to replace Jakobi Meyers.

This is a concern, according to @MikeGiardi, who also cited concern with Smith-Schuster’s learning curve regarding the Patriots’ playbook.

If the injury is a serious concern, the Patriots may get more aggressive with signing DeAndre Hopkins.

It’s also a good idea to monitor what’s going on with DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, and Kendrick Bourne as the offseason continues.

Jonathan Taylor (IND), ADP 16.8, RB4:

Taylor has missed the Colts’ offseason program due to ankle surgery that limited him to 11 games in '22.

He is aiming to be ready for training camp.

With a rookie QB, the Colts have a higher chance of relying heavily on that running game.

Keep an eye on it, but for now he’s still worth the early draft pick.

🤨 Saints RB’s Mysterious Absence Raises Eyebrows at OTAs

🦶 Falcons Secure Kicker: Is This the Answer to Their Prayers?

💎 The Hidden Gem Ready to Shine on the Giants’ Offense

🏴‍☠️ Is Raiders’ RB the Missing Piece in Their Backfield Puzzle?

✍️ Comeback Trail: Chiefs RB Targets Mid-Camp Return

✈️ Chiefs WR Takes Flight: Can He Soar to Fantasy Stardom?

🏈 Can Rookie WR Make His Mark in New York?

🐏 Is This Fantasy Darling Ready to Ignite the Rams' Offense

👀 Commanders Eye Veteran RB for Depth

🦬 Bills' New WR Emerges as Josh Allen's Favorite Target

Happy Weekend! Remember, seven days without fantasy football makes one weak.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.