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😳 Easily DESTROY your friends in fantasy football

😳 Easily DESTROY your friends in fantasy football

Pick these 7 guys

Joe Holka
July 07, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Friday already?! I hope you enjoyed the short holiday week.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

It’s StevenSZN once again 👑
TJ for TE in Minnesota 📈
The best late RB handcuff in fantasy 💪
NFL newsworthy nuggets 🏈

R. Stevenson (NE), ADP 26.5, RB9:

There’s no clear threat to Rhamondre’s carries or targets on the roster, and it gives him top-5 RB upside.

His 63.2% opportunity share will rise without Damien Harris in New England. Harris had 23 targets and 17 RZ touches over just 11 games in a poorly-functioning offense.

Rhamondre’s 69 receptions (nice) ranked 4th in the league and his 421 receiving yards ranked 7th.

Also check out his ability to move:

• 3rd in juke rate (40.5%)

• 6th in breakaway runs (15)

• 3rd in evaded tackles (113)

• 6th in yards created per touch (3.43)

That poorly-functioning offense should only get better with the return of competent OC Bill O’Brien.

It all makes Stevenson an ideal pick in late round 2/early round 3 of your draft.

Justin Fields (CHI), ADP 49.2, QB6:

Fields finished as QB5 in fantasy PPG (20.7), ahead of Lamar Jackson (20.3), who is 15 draft spots more expensive.

We all know how prolific Fields was in the rushing category.

His 1,143 rushing yards were the 2nd most ever for a QB (Behind Jackson’s 2019), and 76.2 rush yards per game was 1st by a mile in ‘22.

While the narrative is that the passing skill wasn’t there yet, he still had some encouraging signs:

• 8th in air yards per attempt (8.9)

• 4th in red zone accuracy rating (7.4)

• 1st in fantasy points per drop back (0.82)

The Chicago coaches have emphasized the passing game, adding D.J. Moore as the WR1, improving the O-line, and working with Fields on footwork and accuracy.

When did the Bears last have a dominant QB?

Fantasy fans can be as excited as the Chicago faithful.

Even with some more passing emphasis, I don’t see Fields falling lower than his PrizePicks prop of 825.5 rush yards.

T.J. Hockenson (MIN), ADP 52.7, TE3:

Hock played on 2 solid offensive teams last year, but actually thrived in his role on the Vikings:

• Targets went from 6.1 to 8.6 per game

• Was TE11 or better in 7 of 10 games in Minnesota

• Had 10 receptions for 129 yards in the playoff game

Over the entire season:

• 3rd in air yards (985)

• 3rd in RZ targets (19)

• 5th in deep targets (10)

• 5th in snap share (84%)

• 4th in yards after catch (419)

The Vikings were 3rd in the league in passing percentage, throwing it up on 64.38% of their total plays.

With a high-powered offense and a poor defense, that shouldn’t change much in 2023.

If you’re looking for a strong TE, Hock’s your guy.

Marquise Brown (ARI), ADP 59.7, WR30:

The Cardinals offense has some big question marks around Kyler Murray’s return. Will it affect Hollywood?

When Kyler played he was 2nd in accuracy rating (8.2), and Arizona was 4th in pass attempts per game (39.1).

So, the volume plus the QB should mean chances.

The numbers get better when you consider there’s no more D’Andre Hopkins to compete for targets.

When Hop was OUT, Brown had:

• 10.6 targets per game

• 7.1 receptions per game

• 18.25 fantasy points per game

Plus, an impressive 14-catch Week 3.

Zooming out, Brown had double-digit fantasy points in 7 of 8 Hop-less games, averaging 15.4 PPG over that span.

That would have been 8th over the season.

He got really hot between Weeks 3-5 when he scored 20.8 PPR points or MORE every game.

And even over the course of the season, he still posted a 23.7% target share (22nd).

Even with sub-par QB play expected, and an uncertain timeline for Murray, Hollywood will be the WR1 in Arizona.

Mike Evans (TB), ADP 67.8, WR35:

I think we tend to prognosticate these guys’ declines a bit too quickly due to age or team situation.

Evans is the case in point.

He’s never in his career fallen outside the top-25 fantasy WRs and is probably the best Buc pass-catcher of all time.

What about in ‘22?

• 16th in ADOT (13.4)

• 3rd in deep targets (31)

• 11th in air yards share (35.4%)

• 10th in unrealized air yards (734)

The QB play will certainly take a hit, but if Baker Mayfield starts, he’s got decent accuracy on the deep ball (11th) and in the red zone (13th).

For a guy who gets open like Evans (11th in total route wins), sometimes that’s all you need.

Tampa wants to extend Evans's contract and lock him up for the rest of his career. They believe in him. I do too.

Warning shot:

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However, if you deposit $5 here🔗(Code:JHS100) and fill out this Google form🔗, you will be grandfathered into a FREE draft kit in 2024 and a MASSIVE discount in 2025.

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If you complete above and don't make the playoffs this year after opening my newsletter every day, I'll 100% refund this $5 deposit.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT), 106.6, TE10:

Year 3 is the big breakout year for TEs.

This guy was a fantasy TE1 in 9 of his 15 games, which is impressive. Add that to the promising metrics:

• 8th in ADOT (8.7)

• 3rd in deep targets (12)

• 9th in target share (19%)

• 8th in air yards share (18.4%)

• 9th in yards after the catch (286)

One underrated aspect of Muth’s game is his pass blocking, which improved considerably last year and will keep him on the field and in the coaches good graces.

Lately he’s been studying film of George Kittle and Travis Kelce to try and find ways to up his own game.

With talent like this, those guys represent a realistic ceiling.

The upside is huge here, and if you draft him as the 10th TE in your league, you’ll get more than you bargain for.

Elijah Mitchell (SF), ADP 123, RB41:

Mitchell had it tough in ‘22, playing in just 5 games.

The good news is that he’s probably the most valuable handcuff in the league as the backup to Christian McCaffrey.

Let’s check out Mitchell’s rookie season in 2021:

• 17th in breakaway runs (8)

• 3rd in opportunity share (80.8%)

• 16th in true yards per carry (4.5)

• 14th in fantasy points per game (15)

If healthy, there’s no reason he couldn’t run it back.

He's got durability concerns, but so does CMC, who had almost 330 touches in '22.

The 49ers would be smart to manage the pitch count there. If that happens, Mitchell is a high-upside backup with elite speed and burst. He has the chance to excel.