👌Top 12 DFS Picks for Week 13!

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12 of the “Top DFS Picks” in Week 13:

First up, Locks of the Week.

It's where @allinkid (http://theathletic.com) and I discuss the guys you can set and forget.

The must-plays for Week 13 in DFS.

Let's get into it

QB: Joe Burrow (DK $6,900 - FD $8,300):

Let's start with the matchup and the Chiefs' defensive numbers:

• Lowest pressure rate on QBs

• 3rd highest EPA allowed to QBs

• 12th highest points per drive allowed

• 35% of opponent plays get 1st down or TD

And the stacks?

Ja'Marr Chase is back to play opposite Tee Higgins.

You could almost stack all 3.

We just don't see why Burrow is so cheap.

QB: Geno Smith (DK $6,100 - FD $7,600):

The Rams look like they've packed it in for the year. The defense stinks.

Especially without Aaron Donald.

You could even consider a DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett stack.

Before we get to RB, Jake wants to mention you have permission to play...

QB: Jalen Hurts (DK $8,000 - $8,800).

Guy's a beast.

Alright, on to the RB position…

RB: Travis Etienne (DK $6,400 - FD $8,000):

Obviously we were gonna attack Detroit.

30.5% of their opponents drives have ended in a TD. Absurd!

(By the way, Jamaal Williams is cheaper, and also in play)

But, Etienne is our lock pick.

The numbers on RunTheSims have Travis Etienne in 19% of optimal Week 13 lineups.

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RB: Brian Robinson (DK $5,300 - FD $6,600):

The Giants have given up a rushing TD every game since Week 6.

Antonio Gibson didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

The Commanders may lean on him.

WR: Garrett Wilson (DK $5,300 - FD $6,600):

This may have more to do with the absence of the other Wilson on the Jets.

Garrett has over 20% target share without Zach at QB.

And the Vikings:

• Allow 6th-highest WR EPA

• Allow most receptions of 20+ yards

PrizePicks lists Wilson for 60.5 receiving yards.

I like the OVER, closer to the mid-70s.

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WR: Christian Watson (DK $5,200 - FD $6,500):

Watson's last 3 games:

• 4-107-3

• 4-48-2

• 4-110-1

Chicago allows 42.3% of pass plays to go for a 1st down or TD.

That's 2nd only to lowly Houston.

TE: Tyler Conklin (DK $3,100 -FD $5,000):

Here's that non-Zach Wilson play again.

In a week where you may want to pay up for Travis Kelce, the price is right.

It's another one we don't understand.

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I spoke with @TJHernandez (http://4for4football.com) this week.

Here are our picks for Week 13 GPPs

QB: Jared Goff (DK $5,300 - FD $6,800):

The ceiling on this game is huge.

Both teams have implied totals over 25.

Trevor Lawrence is expected to be popular on the other side, BUT

we aren't giving up a ton of production with Goff.

In fact…

Both other times Detroit was favored at home, the games averaged 78 points.

In fact, games in Detroit are averaging 55.

With the Chiefs game so expensive, you can even onslaught this one.

RB: Nick Chubb (DK $8,000 - FD $9,600):

Ceiling is always there. He could win you some money.

With his price close to guys like Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler,

T.J. doesn't expect his ownership too high.

Last week was encouraging…

For the first time ever playing with Kareem Hunt, Chubb had 80% of touches.

This week, Deshaun Watson's return will push people toward the passing game.

Against Houston, Chubb's the pivot.

Even at the high cost.

WR: Justin Jefferson (DK $8,900 - FD $8,700):

Projecting sub-10% ownership here.

You can fit him as a contrarian alongside cheaper stacks.

Plus he's opposite the popular Garrett Wilson.

Jets can push this one, and it could pay off.

TE: George Kittle (DK $5,000 - FD $6,200):

Kittle's in a no man's land price range.

Many will try to go up to Kelce or look at some sub-$4K players.

SF threw it 37 times last week.

DEF: Green Bay Packers (DK $3,000 - FD $4,700):

They're the best D at $3K or lower...

Contingent on the health of Justin Fields of course.

Ownership will be low, too. Because people will click the cheaper teams.

And Miami is 29th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.

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