👌The Top 17 DFS Picks in Week 11!

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17 of the “Top DFS Picks” in Week 11:

First up, Locks of the Week.

It's where @allinkid (http://theathletic.com) and I discuss the guys you can set and forget.

The must-plays for Week 11 in DFS.

Let's get into it

QB: Justin Fields (DK $7,600 - FD $8,700):

Dating to 1950, only 1 QB has had 2 games of 140+ rush yards in the same year.

That QB is Fields.

The Atlanta matchup isn't bad either.

The guy's on fire lately.

And while we're not talking GPPs until later in the thread, consider the pivot:

QB: Marcus Mariota (DK $5,500 - FD $7,200):

Jake likes this purely for the Bears' poor play action defense.

But don't get it twisted, Fields is the lock.

QB: Joe Burrow (DK $6,800 - FD $8,300):

It's a nice price tag for a guy playing vs. the Steelers.

T.J. Watt's return gives us a little pause.

Pittsburgh's pass rush is better with him.

But we aren't worried about them running the ball and eating clock.

Why? D.J. Reader.

The Bengals effectiveness vs. the run:

• 55% without Reader

• 74% with Reader

Najee Harris is banged up and ineffective anyway.

If the Steelers are throwing, we expect a high-octane matchup.

Even without Ja'Marr Chase, Burrow is a nice play here.

RB: Antonio Gibson (DK $5,600 - FD $6,600):

The Commanders have shied away from the RB committee without J.D. McKissic.

Brian Robinson is fine, but Gibson is loving this time share.

And then there's the matchup…

Houston Texans Defense:

• 13 rushing TDs allowed (worst)

• 1407 rushing yards allowed (worst)

Since Washington's backs have settled into these roles, Gibson is top-15.

The guy is thriving right now.

He's a smash into lineups at this price.

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RB: David Montgomery (DK $6,100 - FD $6,200):

The whole story here might be the absence of Khalil Herbert.

We expect a big workload from Montgomery this week.

Perhaps even a James Conner-like 90%.

Almost a no brainer vs. Atlanta.

WR: Terry McLaurin (DK $5,900 - FD $7,300):

Since Taylor Heinicke has been the QB, Scary Terry is top-10 in team target %.

But Terry isn't the only one to benefit…

Washington with Carson Wentz:

• 29th in points per drive

• 12th-highest rate of 3 and outs

Washington with Heinicke:

• 19th in points per drive

• 5th-LOWEST rate of 3 and outs

Heineke and McLaurin make them go.

WR: Tee Higgins (DK $7,100 - FD $7,600):

If you want to stack with Burrow, Higgins is the guy.

He's a WR1 masquerading as a 2 because of Ja'Marr Chase, who's still out.

Jake compares him to Anquan Boldin, who used to be a big hit or miss.

This is a hit game for Higgins.

PrizePicks has Higgins for an O/U of 67.5 receiving yards this week.

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Quick TE check this week:

• Greg Dulcich (DK $3,800 - FD $5,500)

• Dalton Schultz (DK $4,300 - FD $5,900)

Both guys are affordable and in pretty good spots.

I'd roll with either one.

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Knowing the best plays is not enough...

If you're playing DraftKings tournaments, you need to know the best pivot plays.

I spoke with @TJHernandez (http://4for4football.com) this week.

Here are our picks for Week 11 GPPs

QB: Justin Fields (DK $7,600 - FD $8,700):

He's here due to the price jack from last week.

It should keep his ownership down, BUT

he's the hottest player in fantasy in the game with the highest O/U.

We all love that rushing upside, but there's more:

Over the last month the Bears are top-10 in passing EPA per play.

The Falcons are bottom-10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to EVERY position.

Including 29th vs. QBs.

Nice.

David Montgomery's ownership this week helps Fields's leverage.

And you can build a pretty unique lineup if you try to stack him.

It's tough to do on this team.

So if you can pull it off, it just might work.

RunTheSims says Fields is a 69.5% favorite to hit for MORE THAN 160 pass yards

It's his PrizePicks O/U.

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RB: Antonio Gibson (DK $5,600 - FD $6,600):

In weeks like this, there's some cheaper value at QB.

That will nudge people to pay up at RB.

Gibson's salary is a tier below, making him a nice way to flip the build.

Remember, Houston is the worst run D in the league.

And the game has matchup strength vs. matchup weakness:

• Washington rushes at 6th-highest rate vs. expectation

• Houston opponents run at the highest rate vs. expectation

It's a nice setup for Antonio.

TJ says the top 1% of DFS lineups have flexed RB more often than the field.

It's especially true when you can pay down at TE.

Gibson allows you to fit in a 3-RB lineup.

(Bonus: he's a pivot from Terry McLaurin)

WR: Tyler Boyd (DK $6,500 - FD $6,800):

We know Joe Mixon will draw ownership.

Tee Higgins, too (see locks).

And at salary, Pittsburgh will be a fairly popular defensive play.

But they're a bad pass defense…

They can be attacked from the slot or the perimeter.

And they're a pass funnel too:

At 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, they force throws.

Boyd's salary is right in that no-man's land.

Look for some big plays from him.

TE: Greg Dulcich (DK $3,800 - FD $5,500):

Dulcich should be the lowest owned of all the cheaper guys at this position.

Denver's passing game isn't very explosive (to say the least).

They'll get squeezed out of ownership.

And we love that matchup...

Las Vegas Defense:

• 32nd in pass EPA per play allowed

• Middle of the pack in explosive pass rate allowed

That means the Raiders don't give up big scores, the kind Courtland Sutton likes.

If Denver sustains drives, Dulcich benefits.

Defense: New York Jets (DK $2,800 - FD $4,600):

They're top-12 in adjusted sack rate.

The Pats are one of the worst pass blocking teams.

And last 6 weeks, NEs been 15th in passing rate over expectations.

So the Jets get leverage off Rhamondre.

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