☠️ The TRUTH about bankroll management in DFS

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The TRUTH about bankroll management in daily fantasy sports:

At best, 80% Cash Game 20% GPP "split" as industry standard is outdated.

At worst, it's mostly fugazi and recycled information.

The DFS meta... TODAY is what matters.

Here are 3 reasons bankroll management can be overrated:

But before we get to the list...

- Not downplaying the importance of identifying your own personal "risk of ruin" because that's > everything else.

- However, I do believe being too rigid and overly risk-averse with your game selection can hold you back in DFS.

1. Biggest leak for most people has nothing to do with their GPP/cash spit.

The % of total bankroll most are willing to risk is likely far too high.

That's the # to be aggressively risk-averse with...

Though, admittedly, I can improve here.

I try to keep this number between 2% and 4% of the money I allocate for DFS.

Or less scientifically...

A dollar amt where if I lost everything, my daily life would not change whatsoever.

Sometimes I fail to keep this between the lines, but I do try.

6. Allen Robinson will finish in the top-15 in fantasy PPG, as Kupp sees regression.

2. You're never "due."

But that doesn't mean playing more or less in a week of NFL is inherently bad.

Unless your process & mindset is changing slate-to-slate, you are still operating close to your long-term ROI.

I've written a lot about "gambler's fallacy"

and other basis lately here (@JoeHolka).

The point is... recent performance is pretty noisy.

Also, never underestimate variance and randomness in DFS.

This is part of the reason I don't see anything wrong with playing more slates.

Even if it deviates from your plan.

Getting more shots on goal during such a short NFL season (slate wise) is great.

Objectively, it's not a good idea to play more (or less) when you are on a streak.

But staying within a set plan of total bankroll allocation...

To play a slate you weren't planning on playing...

Is fine.

I have to clarify certain things multiple times, so people don't get mad online.

BR is defined as the amount of money you would feel comfortable losing.

Money you are fine going to legit zero over a defined timeline or season.

Gamble responsibly.

3. Scaling up should be situational

There are a few reasons (generally) where it makes sense to scale up:

- You have an opinion that differs greatly from the field

- Significant late news

- Pricing is tight, everyone complaining

- Massive overlay

Note:

If some combination of the above happens...

These can be some of the most profitable weeks in SE/3max.

Many people will take on less risk.

Planning for the high-scoring outcome, when the low-scoring outcome can be the most profitable.

Tl;dr

1. Play less % of "Risk of Ruin."

2. You're never "Due."

3. Scaling up should be situational

The standard 80/20 bankroll management is a good starting point.

But it's more personal than that.

• You have an opinion that differs greatly from the field

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