🏈Week 1 Games of the Week

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1. Philadelphia (-4) at Detroit:

Last year, this game was an inflection point for the 2-5 Eagles.

They rolled, 44-6, and went 7-3 the rest of the season by POUNDING the rock.

What will the game reveal this time?

Philly will be aggressive with Jalen Hurts ($6800), esp early in the year.

We won't see this price on him again.

So who can we look to stack him with?

Dallas Goedert ($4500) isn't a bad choice.

He ran a route on 80% of team drop backs,

And gets about 11 Yards per target. The price is right for him.

A.J. Brown ($6400) is a big stack choice.

He was 4th in target rate per route run.

The Detroit D was 19th in catch rate allowed and 29th in yards per target in '21.

Good production is coming for Brown.

On the other side, Amon-Ra St. Brown has scared people off, so he's cheap ($6100).

Let's not ignore him.

Sure, the injuries on DET were a factor in his hot stretch, but...

Why would DET go back to what wasn't working, overfeeding Hock and Swift?

Amon-Ra was targeted on 37% of his routes in preseason.

Was WR1 in targets against zone last year.

Philly runs more zone than almost anyone.

Let's go!

Amon-Ra has an O/U of just 5.5 catches this week on PrizePicks.

He should eclipse that in this matchup.

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Hockenson ($4900) is interesting...

PHI allowed most TE catches per game,

but we still don't really know his upside.

Over his career, he has 15 targets of over 20 yds.

Kyle Pitts had 10 last year!

RBs in this game are difficult.

Swift is good ($6800), but Philly is kind of tough to go near.

Miles Sanders ($5400) is due for positive TD regression, but how much?

Hurts, Scott, Gainwell, and Sermon may take those RZ touches.

Sanders no more than a contrarian stack.

Philly-Detroit Stack Lineup:

QB: Jalen Hurts

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR: Juju Smith-Schuster

WR: Eli Moore

RB: Alvin Kamara

RB: Chase Edmonds

TE: Dallas Goedert

FLEX: James Conner

DEF: Commanders

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2. KC (-3) at Arizona:

Tough game for the Cardinals.

They're missing guys, especially on D.

That will open it up for KC.

So what are the right plays here?

Well, ARI got MURDERED from the slot last year.

So Juju ($5800) is a good starting point. He proved he can still score TDs.

MVS ($4700) is a sneaky play too.

Why?

He was second in tgts on vertical routes only to the guy he's replacing, Tyreek Hill.

If Mahomes wants to force it downfield, MVS may see that production.

What about Kelce?

Ironically, he's a tough play this week.

If there's one place the Cardinals aren't suffering, it's the middle of the field.

They only allowed 2 TE TDs all year.

Tread lightly.

Another unappealing pick for KC is CEH ($5400).

But he will be out there, getting carries.

And has a high likelihood of goal line work.

On the Arizona side, Rondale Moore ($4000) will be an affordable pick.

If Ertz ($4400) plays, you could do worse than him.

But the one place there's no question mark is with James Conner ($7000).

Yes, they want to lighten Conner's load,

But I think that's more long-term.

He will get carries in this game.

As for the WRs...

Kyler Murray is 1st in comp % on throws over 30 yards since being in the league.

Lamar had trouble on such throws to Hollywood Brown.

And KC Defense let up 17.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s.

Brown could be licking his chops.

And if you're desperate, hear me out...

A.J. Green ($4600) may be older, but he'll be as fresh as possible for week 1.

You just never know.

KC-Arizona Stack Lineup:

QB: Patrick Mahomes

WR: Justin Jefferson

WR: Juju Smith-Schuster

WR: Eli Moore

RB: Aaron Jones

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

TE: Travis Kelce

FLEX: Kadarius Toney

DEF: Commanders

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3. Green Bay (-1.5) at Minnesota:

Someone won big on this game last year.

It's me. I'm someone.

What will it bring in '22?

GB has strong RB game, and will use it.

Vikings D was dead last in EPA vs the run.

89% of carries against got positive yds.

But which guy is the choice?

AJ Dillon ($5300) is nice for chasing TDs,

But Aaron Jones ($6700) has more ways to get it done.

Could potentially lead the team in targets.

And at this price point, people may go up for Mixon, Conner, or CMC.

That makes Jones a nice low-owner play.

PrizePicks rush yards for Jones is set at just 50.5.

Will he hit that on the ground alone?

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GB wideouts are ickier.

If Lazard is out, there will be rotation on the outside.

We should see Watkins, Watson, and Doubs in some capacity.

Watkins ($4700) could pay off,

But he's burned us too many times.

That makes Randall Cobb the safest guy.

Especially at just $3400.

Even with time missed, he was 25th in expected RZ points.

It isn't a sexy pick, but Rodgers trusts him.

As for the Vikings, we want to see the Kevin O'Connell factor.

He'll put them in better situations.

Should be more passing on early downs, putting teams in more sub groupings.

That will benefit Dalvin Cook. How?

He's efficient in those situations, averaging 5.4 YPC in career.

He's 4th in EPA per rush the last 4 yrs.

$7900 may be worth it if you can swing it.

You have options for Viking pass catchers:

Jefferson is obvious beast to be utilized creatively.

Thielin ($5400) has upside if he keeps scoring.

KJ Osborne ($4900) a nice cheap option.

But I like Irv Smith Jr. ($3400). Why?

Just 24, and we haven't seen his ceiling.

It's now or never for this guy.

And the price is right this week.

GB-Minnesota Stack Lineup:

QB: Kirk Cousins

WR: Justin Jefferson

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR: Juju Smith-Schuster

RB: Aaron Jones

RB: Joe Mixon

TE: Dallas Goedert

FLEX: Rondale Moore

DEF: Commanders WEEK 1 NFL

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