🔥 Week 4's Top Fantasy Plays

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

What surprises can we expect in the NFL this week? Let’s prepare for Week 4 together.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• My Week 4 MUST-STARTS ✍

• DFS plays and tournament pivots 💲 

• A WINNING PrizePicks stack entry 🔥 

• Player news to help prepare for Sunday 👍

Each week this NFL season, I’ll be chatting with Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) from Sharp Football Analysis about some of the best matchups and DFS plays in the league.

Check out my YouTube channel for the videos.

RB: Zack Moss (IND)

The RB landscape isn’t great on the main slate this week. We’ve lost big stars to injury, creating some scarcity.

Moss has gotten some ridiculous volume over the last couple of weeks, getting 32 touches on Sunday and having 2 weeks in a row of RB1 results.

Just look at some of the most impressive numbers:

• Back-to-back 100-yard games

• 29.2% of carries for a 1st down or TD

• 54 of 60 Indianapolis backfield touches

And he’s a home favorite against a weak Rams run defense coming off a short week. Easy money.

WR: Puka Nacua (LAR)

Reebs said imagine being so good in your first two NFL games that 5 catches for 72 yards makes people upset with you.

Puka’s another huge volume guy with Cooper Kupp still sidelined, but there’s a wrinkle when we consider how he’s targeted in zone vs. man. Against Cincinnati, he ran 16 routes against man, and didn’t get a target. When they were in zone, he was targeted on 33% of his routes.

On the season, Puka’s been targeted on:

• 39.6% of his routes vs. zone

• 18.8% of his routes vs. man

No team has played less man coverage than this week’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts. Do with that what you will.

As a bonus, Puka could be a nice pivot off Kyren Williams, who is projected to be highly-owned on DraftKings this week. The Colts are better against the run and Williams seems TD-dependent anyway.

Finally for a rookie, his usage stats are terrific. Check out the graphic from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life:

QB: Russell Wilson (DEN)

Russ might not be the most fun pick here (the Broncos are having a bad month to say the least), but he’s already given us a higher floor than he had a year ago. Last Sunday was his lowest fantasy output of the season, but would have been his 5th-highest of 2022.

Russ has actually thrown for over 300 yards for 2 weeks running.

His opponent this week is the Chicago Bears, carrying a 13-game losing streak into this one. They’ve given up 25+ points in every single one of those games.

They’ve been just atrocious vs. QBs. They gave up over 9 yards per pass attempt to Jordan Love in Week 1, and did the same for Baker Mayfield. They only have 1 single sack on the year so far.

So Russ should be able to perform.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

The Cowboys were a tad disappointing last week, but we have our reasons for putting CeeDee on our list today.

The Patriots are an aggressive defense and they play man coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the league. Lamb feasts on that with 3.43 yards per route run.

It will be interesting to see what Bill Belichick does. He didn’t allow Tyreek Hill to face a lot of man coverage in Week 2, but he did against everyone else. If the Pats play a lot of those looks, CeeDee could pop off.

WR: Adam Thielen (CAR)

This was one of my surprises of Week 3. I don’t know if I expected Thielen to get over 30 fantasy points ever again, but here we are.

Jonathan Mingo is in the concussion protocol just in time for a possible Thielen revenge game against his former team. Minnesota is 30th in the league in catch rate against opposing WRs, and 20th in TD rate.

The big question is the QB. Andy Dalton would have been exceptional for Thielen in this spot, but it looks like Bryce Young is on track to return to the field.

Either way, we like Thielen here.

And the NUMBER 1 must start of Week 4 is… (CLICK HERE)

Every single week this season, I’ll post videos of my chats with Jake Ciely (@allinkid) of The Athletic, and DFS tournament player @RyanHodge. We discuss the best DraftKings plays and GPP tournament pivots of the week ahead.

If you want to check these out, subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Justin Herbert (LAC) - $7,800

Herbert has come in this year continuing to do what he does best, which is just putting up crazy passing stats week after week. He leads the league in completion percentage, and is 3rd in total passing yards.

This week he faces the Raiders, who aren’t able to get consistent stops on defense, and we don’t really know who will be playing QB for them yet.

After last week’s 405-yard explosion from this guy, there’s not much left to say. Although, if you want to save some salary, you could do worse than look to Joe Burrow, who is just $6,500 and started to get right with his receivers in Week 3. Just beware of that calf injury.

Tournament Pivot: Josh Allen ($8,200), projected ownership 9-12%

RB: Miles Sanders (CAR) - $5,800

The Panthers may have known what they were up to.

They made it a point to get Sanders back into the passing game in ways that Philadelphia totally abandoned. Now all of a sudden, Sanders is looking like more of a PPR asset than he has in at least 4-5 years.

Combine that usage and the price point, and it’s tough not to want to go to him this week.

RB: Javonte Williams (DEN) - $6,000

The questions surrounding his health and ability that were swirling all summer have been quashed. Williams has had his usage see a decent little uptick recently, at the expense of July darling Samaje Perine.

The Broncos have been a disaster on defense, but they’ve been able to get some things going on offense, and Williams has been a big part of that. He’s top 10 in his team’s target percentage among RBs (12.6%), which is sort of surprising, given what Denver has looked like overall.

It makes for an intriguing pick against a Bears team that’s been totally inept.

Tournament Pivot: James Cook ($6,300), projected ownership 6-12%

WR: Keenan Allen (LAC) - $7,900

Until Allen’s price hits $8,000, you have our permission to play him. What are they thinking over there?

As I mentioned above, Justin Herbert is going to continue to do great things with his arm, and the Raiders are… well, the Raiders. The biggest question here is whether they can push this game enough to keep the scoring up.

Still, Keenan is going to be an excellent play again. Just looking at Fantasy Life’s Air Yards tool we can see he’s up there in a number of categories, including the most YAC in the league at 177:

One thing to monitor in this game is Allen vs. Davante Adams. We’re leaning Allen because of the QB situation. Herbert vs. The Great Unknown. It’s a terrific play this week.

Tournament Pivot: Tyler Boyd ($4,100), projected ownership 1-4%

TE: T.J. Hockenson (MIN) - $6,500

The TE slate is often a pay up or pay down type of situation. This week, we like Hockenson since some of the other great TE options aren’t playing on the main slate.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have some of the highest passing rates in the league. Kirk drops back nearly 50 times per game so far, so the volume will certainly be there for Hock.

Tournament Pivot: Dawson Knox ($3,100), projected ownership 2-6%

DST: Philadelphia Eagles - $4,100

If you’re building a lineup and you can fit these guys in, you should just go for it. The Commanders are allowing the most points to opposing DSTs, much of that owing to the thrashing they took at the hands of Buffalo in Week 3.

Philly is more than competent and matches up well here too.

Tournament Pivot: Houston Texans ($2,900), projected ownership 2-6%

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• Josh Allen MORE THAN 308.5 pass+rush yards: We assume Miami is going to score and Buffalo will need Allen to keep up with that torrid pace. Combined yardage should be up there.

• DK Metcalf MORE THAN 59.5 receiving yards: Geno Smith targets DK at a very high rate vs. the blitz, and almost NO ONE blitzes as often as the Giants do.

• Miles Sanders MORE THAN 16.5 receiving yards: He’s surpassed this number in 2 out of 3 games so far. The Panthers are keeping him involved in that passing attack.

• Jerome Ford MORE THAN 48.5 rush yards: Ford stands out from a simulation and projection standpoint here. He hasn’t yet ceded much work to Kareem Hunt.

• James Cook MORE THAN 56.5 rush yards: He’s playing in the game with the highest O/U on the main slate, and he’s 7th in explosive yards through the first 3 games.

It’s as simple as that! Don’t forget to check out 💥 My favorite PrizePicks & Bets this week.

🚫 Seahawks Fantasy Star Misses Practice with Rib Issue

✈️ New York RB Upgraded to “Full”

👍 Hollywood Thumb Injury Raises Concerns for Cardinals

💪 Frank Clark Eyes Week 5 Return to Broncos D

🧠 Raiders’ QB Progresses in Concussion Protocol

🤒 Illness Clouds Week 4 Availability for TE

🏈 Jeudy’s Status Ahead of Sunday Still Not Secure

🔄 Commander TE Upgraded, Viable for Fantasy?

📰 The Latest on Brandon Aiyuk’s Injury Status

😱 49ers WR Not Practicing, Trouble Ahead?

Enjoy the start of your weekend! Just remember to save some cash for those sports betting apps.

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