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🤔 Which WRs could challenge Jefferson for WR1?

🤔 Which WRs could challenge Jefferson for WR1?

3 options AFTER round 1

Joe Holka
August 03, 2023

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The Hall of Fame Game is tonight! It’s like the first bad Thursday Night Football game of the year!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

The Sun God’s case for greatness 🌞
Jeudy’s Mile High pile of talent 💥
How Waddle could make a Miami splash 🐬
NFL training camp’s latest info 🏈

A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 13.9, WR9:

Amon-Ra is a big-time target magnet. He earned 146 last year, which was the 8th-most despite being a DNP in Week 4 and falling victim to game flow in Week 7, when he got 1 look.

The athletic metrics also put him in elite territory:

7th in juke rate (11.3%)
2nd in route win rate (52.8%)
9th in yards per route run (2.57)
10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

So the dude can get open, has a 93% catch rate, and a ton of targets. They all put him in the WR1 conversation.

Being part of the Lions strengthens St. Brown’s case. Jared Goff produces more than many give him credit for.

He had the 6th-most pass attempts over the course of the season (587), the 4th-best accuracy rating (8.0), the 7th-best deep ball completion percentage (44.4%), and the 10th-best accuracy rating under pressure (6.1).

The team’s leaky defense also led to more passing volume, which should be the case again with teams like Kansas City, Baltimore, Minnesota, Seattle, and Atlanta on the schedule.

One knock on Sun God is that he doesn’t run a lot of deep routes. Even so, he was 5th in YAC last season (513) and is still working on improving in that area, according to WR coach Antwaan Randle El.

After all, every inch counts if you want to finish at the top.

Ultimately Amon-Ra is still the first option in Detroit, and if things break right, he could make a realistic push for best WR.

With all the targets he gets and the Jameson Williams suspension, I can’t see a scenario where Amon-Ra doesn’t get MORE THAN 95.5 receptions.

Check out PrizePicks to get a piece of that action.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 38.8, WR20:

We all respect Sean Payton’s ability to coach up an offense, and his experience in the league as a Super Bowl winning HC.

So when he says the last coach did a poor job with the team in front of him, it’s reasonable to expect real improvement.

Jeudy will be one of the big winners in that equation.

Even in the tough year with poor coaching:

9th in yards per target (9.7)
16th in yards per route run (2.29)
19th in fantasy points per game (13.6)
13th in fantasy points per target (2.04

But even those stats may be an undersell.

When he wasn’t hobbled by nagging injuries, Jeudy actually averaged 18.5 fantasy PPG. (per @AndrewErickson_)

It would have ranked 5th — better than both CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown over the season.

Tim Patrick just suffered another brutal injury that ended his season and may even put his career in jeopardy.

That’s brutal for Patrick, but it means more targets for Jerry.

So if the team revival happens like so many of us expect, then the upside here is virtually unlimited.

He’s the Bronco WR1, and if Danger Russ Wilson shapes up his game like he did his body this offseason, WR1 is possible.

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Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 16.9, WR11:

He’s already a member of one of the most explosive WR duos in the league/ the world.

Teammate Tyreek Hill is currently drafted in the top 5, while you can get Waddle in the early to mid-2nd round, which may be a better value for the production.

Hill gets the higher target share (31.6% vs. 21.6%), but Waddle is the more efficient receiver:

1st in yards per target (11.7)
1st in yards per reception (18.1)
4th in yards per route run (2.81)
10th in route win rate (49.2%)

So a slight shift in volume may close the gap, launching Waddle into the conversation for fantasy’s best WR.

Both guys balled out last year when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, and that’s the big key, as the production drops off without him:

Waddle with/without Tua:

Targets: 7.4/5.4
Yards: 89.7/55.8
Receptions: 4.7/3.8
PPR points: 17.95/9.56

ALL of Waddle’s TDs came with Tua as well.

While we can’t really count on the decline of a player who’s still 29, Hill will slow down at some point. If he gets injured, Waddle is immediately in the conversation as a must-start.

So a break here or there could absolutely launch him to the top.