🏆 13 LEAGUE WINNERS for your draft

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Mondays are like the first round of your draft. Start it right and make the rest of your week a winner!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Quick-hitter picks for the unprepared 👍

• Targets for all throughout your draft 🎯 

• The best data and tools to back up the takes ✍️

• The NFL’s latest news and notes 🏈 

Darren Waller (NYG), ADP 63.8, TE5:

Waller is terrifically athletic, and will help the Giants move the ball to improve on their 22nd 3rd-down rate.

In 9 games in ‘22 at his position, he ranked:

• 1st in ADOT (13.6)

• 1st in deep targets (13)

• 2nd in yards per reception (13.9)

• 11th in yards per route run (1.69)

He’s one of my favorite draft targets this year at a historically tricky position.

Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 64.9, RB21:

It’s true he isn’t practicing and could be out until Week 1.

But still, I have some faith in the guy after RB coach Deuce Staley said he wants to get him involved in the pass game.

And he has lost some love, but he was productive in Philadelphia in ‘22 for the NFC champs:

• 5th in rush yards (1,269)

• 9th in rushing touchdowns (11)

• 14th in true yards per carry (4.7)

And if you think he can’t handle the load, he was 9th in total snaps (per @MBFantasylife):

A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 15.9,WR8:

According to Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life, St. Brown was 14th in WOPR (60.1%) and 9th in RACR.

Combined with his being 8th in targets (146), 2nd in route win rate (52.8%), and 9th in yards per route run (2.57), we have ourselves a winner over there in Detroit.

Plus, the Lions have 6 games vs. teams in the bottom 9 when it comes to allowing fantasy points to WRs.

If they could only play themselves…

Kirk Cousins (MIN), ADP 105.6, QB13:

This guy is about as consistent as they come, and should once again finish as a QB1 for fantasy purposes.

He’s only failed to throw 30 TDs once in the last 5 years, and has the best WR in the world catching his passes.

And If you want to talk league-winners, look at the late-season schedule. The Vikings slate from Week 15 on features a Cincinnati matchup that’s more likely than not to turn into a shootout, and 2 Detroit games.

These favorable matchups come during the fantasy playoffs, ensuring Cousins will be a must-start during those weeks.

James Cook (BUF), ADP 79.8, RB25:

While his rookie year opportunity share was pedestrian (31.2%), he’s looking ready to take the reins in Buffalo this year, working solely with the first team in the last preseason game.

His limited touches were also explosive:

• 3rd in yards per touch (6.3)

• 2nd in true yards per carry (5.3)

• 1st in breakaway run rate (12.1%)

His ADOT ranked 6th and he had a respectable 234% RACR.

It’s still a good offense, and Cook is in the center of it.

Skyy Moore (KC), ADP 115.2, WR48:

Moore will get the bulk of the slot work for Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl Champions.

Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both out of Kansas City, which opens up 135 targets and over 1,200 receiving yards. A good amount of production.

Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have led the WRs in usage all preseason, next to Travis Kelce at TE.

That should lead to more looks from the superhuman Patrick Mahomes, and will increase his fantasy value.

He could be in line for a ton of volume.

Dalton Schultz (HOU), ADP 127.2, TE11:

The Texans’ offense will undoubtedly run into some growing pains with C.J. Stroud, but he’s considered accurate and represents a raw talent upgrade over Davis Mills.

As for Schultz, he finds himself in a good situation.

After finishing 9th in fantasy PPG (9.5) on the back of 57 catches for 577 yards, he joins a team that targeted 6 different TEs in ‘22.

They combined for 131 targets, 77 catches, and 959 yards.

And 3 of them are no longer on the roster.

Going back to Schultz’s 2021 provides an even rosier look:

• TE3 in fantasy

• Caught 78 balls for 808 yards and 8 TDs

With a little bit of chemistry in the new offense, he could be in line for a huge breakout season.

And with all that Texan TE production up for grabs, I think he gets MORE THAN his PrizePicks futures prop of 525.5 yards.

Javonte Williams (DEN), ADP 69, RB23:

After a long recovery, Williams finally looks ready to recapture some of the magic he showed as a rookie back in 2021:

• 13th in targets (53)

• 13th in rushes (203)

• Overall RB14 (204.9 PPR points)

Remember, that was while sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon, so this guy’s talented for sure.

In 4 games in ‘22 before tearing his knee, he played over 35 snaps per game (19th), and got 47 carries and 16 catches.

(@MBFantasylife)

So if the recovery has been as remarkable as the media is saying, Javonte could bounce back in a big way.

D.J. Moore (CAR), ADP 55, WR22:

Check out who led the league in WOPR, air yard percentage, and had a ADOT of 13 (courtesy of @MBFantasylife):

Moore had a stable of meh-level QBs last season with the Panthers, and now gets to work with rising star Justin Fields.

If there was ever a time for this guy to rise to superstardom, 2023 with this Chicago team is it.

Daniel Jones (NYG), ADP 108.7, QB15:

He won a lot of leagues in ‘22 after being the highest scorer in the fantasy playoffs, so why not do it again?

Even though his passing metrics haven’t been the best, he still had some good ones:

• 5th in accuracy rating (8.0)

• 1st in true completion percentage (75.7%)

• 3rd in red zone completion percentage (64.3%)

And of course the obligatory QB rushing cheat code:

• 3rd in rush TDs (7)

• 5th in rushing yards (708)

• 5th in rushing yards per game (44.3)

Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley, and a cast of others are around to ensure Danny Dimes continues his upward trend.

James Conner (ARI), ADP 75.8, RB26:

Conner had a 71.7% opportunity share last year (8th). The Cardinals are considered a rebuilding team with not much in the way of touch competition in the RB room.

So drafting Conner as RB30 is about the volume:

• 12th in targets (58)

• 13th in receptions (46)

• 6th in snap share (70.5%)

• 10th in route participation (53.2%)

But he was still efficient in some areas as well:

• 4th in EPA

• 13th in evaded tackles (64)

• 14th in yards created per touch (3.10)

The fact is, Conner was 9th in fantasy PPG and he’s being drafted way too late because of his team and QB situation.

You won’t find anyone else this late in line for his kind of volume.

Irv Smith (CIN), ADP 166.7, TE18:

Irv has let us down in fantasy for most of his career, but he’s young and his new situation is hopeful.

Hayden Hurst was TE12 in targets in ‘22, and was a top-20 TE whenever Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins missed time.

That would mean good opportunity for Irv whenever that situation arises again, and it will at least once or twice.

He’s had a rough go with injuries, but was 11th in ADOT (8.3), and 8th in yards per reception (12.2) back in 2020 before getting banged up and missing time.

If you believe in the Bengals, which most of us do, you could do far worse on a late-round TE who may finally live up to his potential this year.

Treylon Burks (TEN), ADP 105, WR47:

The DeAndre Hopkins signing only boosts Burks’s stock, as it will ensure opponents are preoccupied.

In ‘21 at Arkansas, he caught 66 passes for 1,104 yards and 11 TDs on a 29.3% target share.

There isn’t much NFL data yet, as he only caught 33 balls as a rookie, but he did get it going in Week 11 between injuries:

• 7 grabs

• 111 yards

• 18.1 PPR points (WR12)

He got the improvement around him, now with injury luck he can let his talents show out.

🐻 Bears’ LG Jenkins Questionable for Week 1

🐆 Jaguar Hamilton Out with Back Issue

🏈 Fantasy Owners Rejoice! Kupp on the Mend

☠️ Raiders’ Jacobs Set to Report: RB1 in the Making

🏈 49ers’ Gray Injured, Droppable in Dynasty

🛑 Bills' O-Line in Trouble? OT Doyle out for Season

🏈 Virgil Sidelined: Denver Depth Takes Hit

🔄 Fantasy Breakout Alert: Colts rookie passes Vet

🔥 Browns Expect Boost from WR Moore

⚡️ FA LB Myles Jack Calls It Quits, Ends Era in NFL

Now you’re ready for that draft. And if you already had it, and didn’t read my advice… better luck next year.

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