🚀 Draft these 3 WRs to beat your friends

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Saturday is my no. 1 draft pick. Except during the football season.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• It’s Sun God SZN in Year 3 🌞 

• D.J. Moore’s CRAZY stats 🐻 

• Which Steeler is a target magnet 🎯 

• The NFL’s fantasy-relevant news 🏈 

A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 16, WR8:

Sun God was hurt in joint practices the other day, but looking at quotes from Dan Campbell, it seems like nothing to worry about.

That’s good news, because this is the first post-round 1 guy I think of when it comes to predicting overall WR1.

Some Amon-Ra’s highlights from ‘22:

• 8th in targets (146)

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

According to our friends at Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life website, St. Brown was also 14th in WOPR (60.1%). It’s a stat that combines air yards share with target share.

He was also WR9 in RACR, which is a metric of how well a player converts his air yards into actual production.

As a bonus, he’s a real positive regression candidate when it comes to scoring. Despite ranking 8th in red zone targets with 21, he only scored 6 times.

And the situation? As good as it gets.

The Lions are already a fantasy factory owing to a leaky defense that promotes a lot of shootouts, but take a look at the teams who rank poorly against WRs in fantasy football:

Detroit happens to play Kansas City, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota (twice), and Dallas from this list. If they could only play themselves we might have a case here.

Additionally, Jameson Williams is out for the first 6 weeks with a suspension, and he is also currently injured. Supposedly his situation is a lot more serious than St. Brown’s, but we’re waiting to hear for sure.

Even if you use a late first-rounder on Amon-Ra, you’re getting a great player in line for a TON of production.

D.J. Moore (CHI), ADP 55, WR22:

The Moore I look the better this pick feels. Don’t believe me?

He handled the load quite well as Carolina’s no. 1 guy in ‘22:

• 1st in WOPR (86.9%)

• 4th in deep targets (29)

• 1st in air yard percentage (53.4%)

His ADOT was 13, which placed him 2nd of all WRs with 100+ targets and 6th among all WRs with 80+ targets.

All of that led to 6 games of WR16 or better, which is not too shabby. But he played with a carousel of QBs last year, including Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. This time he returns with one of the most intriguing fantasy stars in the game.

Word is that the two have clicked EXTREMELY well in workouts, and that Moore is highly motivated with his new team.

As for Justin Fields, he was underwhelming in the passing stats last year, but he’s been working on reads and mechanics, and the team has made it a point to improve in this area.

The other WRs like Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are serviceable guys who can support a solid offense.

But I keep coming back to Moore as the guy who’s ready to make a leap with his new opportunity.

I think with the rise of Fields, and the crazy workload projected for Moore, he’ll smash his PrizePicks futures prop of 62.5 receptions. 

Take it to the bank.

Diontae Johnson (PIT), 74.1, WR29:

This guy remains undervalued with the mid-70’s ADP. He’s one of just 3 WRs to see 140+ targets for 3 straight years, and his QB projects to take a step up in 2023.

Last year, Johnson had some encouraging signs:

• 10th in RZ targets (18)

• 4th in juke rate (15.1%)

• 11th in total route wins (240)

He was 7th in air yard percentage (37.3%) and 5th in WOPR (70.7%) (Advanced stats thanks to @MBFantasylife)

It all sounds great. So why was he only WR28 overall and WR39 in fantasy points per game?

Bad luck.

Johnson had the 2nd-most unrealized air yards (875) and didn’t find the end zone once during the season.

That’s a statistical blip. It WILL change this season.

As the Steeler offense played together last season, they continued to improve all year. Kenny Pickett and the O-line got better under the staff of Mike Tomlin.

Johnson’s a great value where he’s being drafted. If you get a chance to pounce here, you won’t regret it.

🚀 Rookie Cedric Tillman Becoming a Preseason Star

🛋️ Eagles' RB Rests as Backfield Picture Shifts

💪 Marcus Mariota Holds Backup Spot With Coach Support

🏃‍♂️ Texans Add RB Rountree: Former Charger Joins Houston

🏈 Colts Sign WR Washington: Former Saint Gets A Shot

🛌 Falcons' RB Out for Weeks With Soft Tissue Injury

🎯 Cooks Projected to Be Second in Targets on Cowboys

📜 Ravens Sign Clowney: Rusher Joins Former Team’s Rival

🏃‍♂️ Raiders' RB White Takes Charge in Jacobs' Absence

💔 Eagles' DB Zech McPhearson Tears Achilles

Enjoy the rest of the weekend, fantasy fans. Spend some quality time with the family. They’ll need it before football season starts.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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