🥇 The fantasy football MVP at EVERY position

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

“Every day is an opportunity disguised as a challenge.” -Tiki Barber

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• My picks for fantasy MVP at each position 🏆

• DST and Kicker included! 🦵 

• Detailed breakdown of each prediction 📝 

• Daily NFL News Blast 📰 

QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL), ADP 36.9

It isn’t as though Lamar has been a bad fantasy QB these last few years. From 2020-22 he’s been 8th (22.8), 7th (21.1), and 6th (20.3) in fantasy PPG among all QBs.

Missing a few games each of the last 2 years has capped his overall output though.

With a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and the system that comes with him, I think Jackson has the potential to reach the heights of his ‘19 campaign, during which he threw 36 TDs, ran for 1,213 yards, and scored an absurd 28.2 PPG.

The system is far more vertical than what we’ve seen in Baltimore recently, and the team has WRs to make it work.

Rookie WR Zay Flowers is emerging as a true talent, Mark Andrews is an elite TE, Odell Beckham is a former superstar, and Rashod Bateman has flashed immense potential when healthy. Ditto for RB J.K. Dobbins. Lamar may be set up better than any season since ‘19.

Don’t forget he’s one of the best in the league when it comes to the QB cheat code — rushing prowess:

• 3rd in carries per game (9.3)

• 3rd in total rushing yards (764)

• 2nd in rushing yards per game (63.7)

Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life website has a tool that ranks strength of schedule based on fantasy football projections rather than simply looking weakness of opponents.

They have the Ravens pegged with the 8th-easiest:

I count Jackson as better than most of the other QBs on the list. I’m drafting and riding his production all year.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 15.8:

Dan Campbell recently said something along the lines of how there’s nothing Amon-Ra can’t do. I think that includes finishing as the OVERALL WR1 in fantasy football.

Let’s start with some ‘22 highlights:

• 8th in targets (146)

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

According to the advanced metrics at Fantasy Life, St. Brown was 14th in WOPR (60.1%). It’s a stat that combines air yards share with target share.

He was also 9th in RACR, which is a metric of how well a player converts his air yards into actual production.

As a bonus, he’s a real positive regression candidate when it comes to scoring. Despite ranking 8th in red zone targets with 21, he only scored 6 times.

And the situation? As good as it gets.

The Lions are already a fantasy factory owing to a leaky defense that promotes a lot of shootouts, but they get to play Kansas City, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota (twice), and Dallas. All are bottom-9 vs. fantasy WRs.

Additionally, Jameson Williams is out for the first 6 weeks with a suspension, and he is also currently injured.

Even if you use a late first-rounder on Amon-Ra, you’re getting a great player in line for a TON of production.

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RB: Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 18.5:

Pollard is going in round 2 of drafts, but he was one of the most efficient runners while sharing time with Ezekiel Elliott. This year, his competition is something called Rico Dowdle.

So he effectively has the backfield to himself.

Last year, he flipped the 34th opportunity share (48.1%) into the 8th most fantasy PPG (15.6).

How did he do it? Like this:

• 5th in yards per touch (5.9)

• 2nd in yards per reception (9.5)

• 4th in yards per route run (1.82)

• 4th in breakaway run rate (8.8%)

• 8th in yards created per touch (3.30)

That’s big-time athleticism and efficiency.

When Pollard plays at least 55% of the snaps, he averages 22.3 points (per @SalVetriDFS), which is higher than fantasy RB1 Austin Ekeler had, on a much higher opportunity rate.

Mike McCarthy will take over sole play-calling duties in Dallas. He famously said back in March that his style is not the flashiest, and that he wants to “run the damn ball.”

That’s great news for Pollard on his way to his best-ever season.

TE: Darren Waller (NYG), ADP 60.6:

This pick is no surprise if you’ve been reading my newsletters lately. He’s my favorite TE target in the draft.

Waller is terrifically athletic, and will help the Giants move the ball to improve on their 22nd 3rd-down rate.

In 9 games in ‘22 at his position, he ranked:

• 1st in ADOT (13.6)

• 1st in deep targets (13)

• 2nd in yards per reception (13.9)

• 11th in yards per route run (1.69)

Daniel Jones has improved immensely under the tutelage of Brian Daboll, cutting down on turnovers, and becoming more accurate at all levels of the field.

Considering the questions at WR, Waller should not only be an important piece, but projects to lead the team in targets.

Pending health of course, I don’t see any way this doesn’t lead to solid production in the Meadowlands.

DST: San Francisco 49ers, ADP 153:

There’s no shortage of great players on this team. Justin Smith, Dashon Goldson, Carlos Rogers, NaVorro Bowman. John Lynch even expressed optimism the other day about Nick Bosa figuring out his contract situation.

This team forced 30 turnovers in’22 (T-2), and allowed the 2nd fewest yards per game to Buffalo by just 4 yards.

And check out the chart from @MBFantasylife, showing where the team ranks vs. each position. They were 4th vs. QBs, 1st vs. RBs, 9th vs. TEs, and 1st vs. kickers, indicating that they typically keep teams out of field goal range.

The one position that seems to do well against this unit is WR, but that could be due to teams trailing a lot.

Some people believe a fantasy defense ultimately doesn’t matter, but not having to worry about streaming the position each week will allow you to focus your attention on other positions.

You can also get some real boom weeks to change the outcomes of your matchups.

K: Justin Tucker (BAL), ADP 162:

Who cares, right?

Just 22 total points separated the 1st and 10th kickers last season, or 1.2 per game.

It isn’t much, and you aren’t REALLY going to turn your fortunes in a season-long fantasy league by targeting the first kicker off the board, but let’s just take a look to appreciate how good Tucker has been throughout his career.

Here’s his fantasy ranking each of the last few years:

• 2022: 1st

• 2021: T-3rd

• 2020: T-7th

• 2019: 3rd

• 2018: 2nd

• 2017: T-3rd

• 2016: 2nd

So if you draft him, you’re getting a slam dunk top 10 guy, and most likely top 5.

Taking it one (plant) step further, Tucker is the record holder for longest field goal in history for his 66-yarder in ‘21, and over his 11-year career he’s been the most accurate guy in NFL history, connecting on over 90% of his attempts. He’s for real.

💔 Pats Release Veteran RB After Disappointing Stint

🚪 David Blough Among Cuts: Cardinals Get to 53

🌬️ Bears Waive DE Gipson After no Trade Partner Emerges

🤕 Texans' Former First Round OL Out for Season

✂️ Colts Waive Amari Rodgers from WR Room

🖋️ Treadwell to Ravens' Practice Squad

🚑 QB Barkley to IR: Season Over

💼 Chris Jones on Reserve/Did Not Report List

🦵Kicker Zane Gonzalez to IR

🚨 TE Latu to IR: Season Over in San Fran

🚪 Jets Punt on Thomas Morstead

Thanks for a great summer of The Touchdown Press. Stay tuned for our new in-season content, starting next week!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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