🙌 Draft these 7 WRs

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My fantasy is that Tuesdays get eliminated from the week. At least we can talk football while we endure it.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Receivers with HUGE upside 📈 

• What the metrics say about them in ‘23 📊 

• How to slot these guys into your draft plan ✍️

• All the news from preseason action 🏈 

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 22.8, WR11:

He was 21st in target percentage (21.7%) while teammate Tyreek Hill was 3rd (31.8%). But consider that when Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t on the field, Waddle’s targets took the dip.

Hill’s didn’t.

And ALL of Waddle’s TDs came from Tua.

So if he’s healthy, Waddle could be in line to even the production between himself and Hill. He’s more efficient in certain areas:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

• 10th in route win rate (49.2%)

If the share evens out just a little bit between them, Waddle may actually become the more productive of the two.

Diontae Johnson (PIT), ADP 73.6, WR29:

All Johnson does is earn targets as maybe the unluckiest guy in the league. In ‘22 he was:

• 5th in WOPR (70.7%)

• 4th in target percentage (29.8%)

• 7th in air yard percentage (37.3%)

… and 48th in fantasy PPG (10.4) with 0 TDs.

Ouch.

This is bad luck and subpar QB play. The good news is that Kenny Pickett looks to improve this year, and should keep throwing it Johnson’s way.

The law of averages makes it virtually impossible for him to finish so low again, so draft away and reap the benefits of volume.

Chart from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life:

Amari Cooper (CLE), ADP 41, WR17:

It seems like he’s been around a while, but at 29 he should have something left in the tank.

Another year with Deshaun Watson sounds intriguing too.

Here are some volume numbers:

• 12 in RZ targets (16)

• 12th in deep targets (24)

• 6th in air yard percentage (38.5%)

He was 15th in yards per route run (2.3) on his way to the overall WR10 finish. He was also 3rd in unrealized air yards (870), so there’s even more potential to be tapped.

Cooper’s 8 pro seasons have seen 6 top-25 fantasy finishes, and there’s no reason to think that stops here.

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Jerry Jeudy (DEN), ADP 52.5, WR20:

Jeudy can be one of the big winners in the Sean Payton shuffle.

Even in the tough year with poor coaching he was:

• 9th in yards per target (9.7)

• 16th in yards per route run (2.29)

• 19th in fantasy points per game (13.6)

• 13th in fantasy points per target (2.04)

But even those stats may be an undersell.

When he wasn’t hobbled by nagging injuries, Jeudy actually averaged 18.5 fantasy PPG. (per @AndrewErickson_)

It would have ranked 5th — better than both CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown over the season.

Even if Russell Wilson can’t regain some of his old form, Jeudy is the no. 1 target in that offense, and can absolutely perform for your fantasy team.

Gabe Davis (BUF), ADP 94, WR36:

I have a secret. I tend to fade Davis due to his reputation for being boom or bust in fantasy football.

But I’m starting to look a little closer at the situation, and I think I like him at his current ADP. Here’s why:

First of all, Davis was 5th in ADOT in ‘22 (15.41), and had by far the most targets out of anyone else in the top 8 with 92. George Pickens was next with 85 and everyone else was down around 50 or fewer.

(Stats thanks to @MBFantasylife)

That should theoretically bode well for that fantasy production, and yes, provide some real BOOM weeks.

Davis was also 24th in air yard percentage (28.2%), which should lead to production with Josh Allen under center.

Plus, aside from Stefon Diggs, the Buffalo WR room isn’t all that impressive on paper.

Isaiah Hodgins (NYG), ADP 202, WR74:

Hodgins caught on nicely at the end of the year for the G-Men. He caught 4 TDs over the final 5 regular season games, and had a MONSTER playoff game vs. Minnesota, catching 8 balls for 105 yards and a score on a broken foot.

If that momentum and toughness continues, he’ll emerge this year for New York.

Hodgins has a huge 6’4” frame and a large catch radius that makes it easy on QBs (8th in catchable target rate), and allows him to get open:

• 1st in route win rate (53%)

• 1st in win rate vs. man (56.5%)

• 7th in fantasy points per target (2.13)

With Daniel Jones improving his game and becoming a top-10 fantasy QB, it’s fair to expect someone in the WR to benefit.

Why not Hodgins?

Jahan Dotson (WAS), ADP 73.7, WR38:

Dotson is a 2nd-year guy who seems primed for a step forward.

He got hot toward the end of the season. Over the final 5 games he earned 7 targets per game and scored 3 TDs.

Here are some other highlights:

• 11th in ADOT (13.98)

• 14th in total touchdowns (7)

• 16th in yards per reception (14.9)

Sam Howell has been named the starter in Washington, with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays.

And while Dotson may still be considered the no. 2 receiver on the roster behind Terry McLaurin, his talent is making fantasy managers look twice and find the value.

Keep Dotson in mind as a WR3 with a much higher upside.

🏈 Texans' Ravenous Plans: Rookie QB Stroud Gets Nod

💰 Browns’ DE Shuffles Cap Space in Penny-Pinching Move

🏆 RB Swap in the Works? Taylor Granted Trade Permission

🦶 Bucs Kick It Freestyle, Nix Blankenship

🚑 Steelers Say Bye-Bye Butler as Injury Strikes

🪁 Cardinal Punter Can’t Haack It

✍️ 49ers Sign RB Hill: RB Carousel Spins On

🏃‍♂️ Panthers’ Hubbard Ankle on the Mend

🚀 Panthers' Sanders Groin Back in Action

🛒 Bills Bag RB Johnson in Grocery Run for RBs

See ya tomorrow on Wednesday, a much better day of the week by almost every metric.

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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