📈 The top 17 OVERALL draft picks

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Final Preseason week starts tonight. I can feel the real thing coming!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The best 17 draft picks in 2023 ⭐️

• Stats and metrics to back ‘em up 📊 

• Where have guys moved since last time? 📈 

• The latest NFL player news and notes 🏈 

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.6, WR1:

Jefferson had 7 separate games of 30+ fantasy points.

He led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

The Vikings and Kirk Cousins passed nearly 40 times per game, which figures to continue, making JJ a sure bet.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 3.3, WR2:

He’s a shade behind Jefferson mainly due to more star power competing for targets around him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

But Chase is the WR1 in the Joe Burrow attack, averaging over 20 points per game, and finishing 1st in expected PPG.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 3.4, RB1:

Things went nicely once he joined the 49ers last year.

After Week 8, he scored 23 PPR points per game on the back of incredible passing game work:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

He’ll continue to generate YAC at a high level too.

Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.1, TE1:

I’ve admitted that I tend not to pull the trigger on Kelce, looking for TE values later on in drafts.

But I get the appeal of a positional cheat code.

He was TE1 in receptions (110), RZ targets (30), TDs (12), yards (1,338), and led ALL PLAYERS not named McCaffrey or Ekeler in yards after the catch, with a whopping 648.

(per Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life)

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 6.5, WR3:

Chiefs, Dolphins, concussed QB…

None of it matters to the Cheetah:

• 1st in deep targets (36)

• 1st in target rate (33.6%)

• 2nd in target share (31.6%)

• 1st in yards per route (3.38)

He’s still one of the fastest guys in the league at age 29, and will absolutely produce again in Head Coach Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme.

If he gets a red zone boost (11 targets), he has WR1 upside.

Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 6.6, RB2:

Ekeler enters a contract year after two consecutive seasons of being the highest fantasy scorer among non-QBs.

In ‘22 he was RB1 in:

• Targets (128)

• Total TDs (18)

• Receptions (107)

• Red zone touches (68)

• Fantasy points per game (21.9)

The one fear is that he’ll hit some regression, but the Charger offense is still explosive, and he’s still a centerpiece.

Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 7.6, WR4:

Some people may be nervous about Kupp due to the injury from last season or even an anticipated drop in Matthew Stafford’s play, but Kupp was on pace to be the WR1 again last season.

He averaged 22.6 PPG, which would have led the entire league.

Chart from @MBFantasylife:

Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 9.9, RB3:

The rookie steps into a ready-made situation, as the Falcons were 3rd in rushing in ‘22 despite trailing often.

Take a look at Bijan’s Texas stats:

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rushing yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 missed tackles forced in 2 SZNs

He’s the rookie best positioned for a big breakout.

Stefon Diggs (BUF), ADP 10.9, WR5:

He’s about as elite as they come, especially playing with Josh Allen. He was 2nd in total TDs (11), 6th in air yards (1,735), and 3rd in yards per route run (2.87)

I don’t love the WR depth in Buffalo. Even Gabe Davis is a little boom-or-bust for me.

It means Diggs will feature prominently once again.

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Saquon Barkley (NYG), ADP 12.6, RB4:

Saquon led all RBs in total snaps in ‘22 (856).

He finished 5th in fantasy points per game (17.8), 4th in carries (295), and 6th in targets (76), showing an incredible balance between rushing and receiving.

With that explosive athleticism, Saquon also finished 6th in evaded tackles (85), and 2nd in breakaway runs (18).

Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 13.2, RB5:

Chubb has never finished a season with fewer than 5 yards per carry, and since 2019 has never been outside of the top-10 RBs in points per game. (6th in ‘22).

Last season, he was:

• 3rd in TDs (13)

• 4th in juke rate (40.4%)

• 1st in breakaway runs (23)

• 1st in evaded tackles (133)

• 6th in fantasy points per game (16.6)

He’s got Deshaun Watson’s backfield all to himself, and with the offense expected to be more high-powered, has a shot to be one of the best fantasy assets the league has to offer.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL), ADP 13.3, WR6:

Lamb had 2 weeks as THE WR1 and 5 more in the top-12.

Overall he was WR7 in points per game (17.7).

He was already 8th in route win rate and 10th in total route wins and now gets Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup to help him continue to get open at an easier rate.

The dude’s a baller.

A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 14.1, WR7:

Brown was WR3 in air yard percentage (40.8%), and WR4 in WOPR (72%), making him a huge fantasy asset in 2022.

He was also 2nd in TDs (11), 2nd in yards per route run (3.01), and 2nd in yards after the catch (543).

He plays alongside Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, ensuring the opposition can never quite key on him.

A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 15.8, WR8:

Sun God forever!

As the 8th-most targeted WR with the 2nd-highest route win rate, I think we can safely say he broke out last year.

Despite ranking 8th in RZ targets (21), he scored only 6 TDs.

And Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 games.

Davante Adams (LV), ADP 16.8, WR9:

Lots of people worried about this draft price due to the situation in Vegas, but Adams was WR3 last year on:

• 1st in total TDs (14)

• 5th in RZ targets (22)

• 1st in air yards (2,130)

• 2nd in deep targets (33)

• 1st in target share (32.6%)

He had the most unrealized air yards too, so there’s even more room for growth. If Jimmy can find him, he’ll keep producing.

Patrick Mahomes (KC), ADP 17.3, QB1:

The league’s sole 5,000 yard passer from 2022 returns to defend the Super Bowl title with Andy Reid by his side.

He also led the league in passing TDs (41), despite an underwhelming WR corps, at best.

The Chiefs have built something special in Kansas City, and if you like to play fantasy football with a top QB, you’ll do just fine with the NFL’s finest player and top scorer.

Chart from Fantasy Life:

Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 18.6, WR10:

I like the Hard Knocks hype on this guy.

He was terrific last year in volume numbers:

• 6th in total targets (147)

• 11th in raw air yards (1,575)

• 6th in unrealized air yards (837)

He also had a ton of unrealized air yards and only scored 4 TDs.

So with a bit more QB consistency, he’s primed to soar.

ADP from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life website.

🔍 Trey Lance's Uncertainty: 49ers Exploring Options

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🕶️ Ex-Commander Jackson Visits Division Rival

💰 Hockenson's Contract Conundrum, at odds with Vikes

🏆 Ravens RB Hill a Roster Lock

🔄 Jonathan Taylor’s Fate Uncertain as he Explores Trades

😖 Hockenson's Back Woes Causing Contract Concerns

🎤 Corey Davis Calls it Quits after Six Seasons

🥇 Darnold Named Backup: QB Pecking Order Set

🎯 Saints' TE Johnson Becoming Carr's Go-To

Enjoy the rest of your Thursday, and the start of the final week of preseason action tonight, fans!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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